Metatek-Group: Buy, Sell or Hold?

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained a “Buy” rating and C$9.00 target on Metatek-Group (Metatek-Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:MTEK) in a May 11 pre-results report, saying the U.K.-based geophysical services company remains positioned for strong growth as it expands its system fleet.

Stanley expects Metatek to report first-quarter revenue of US$4.1-million and Adjusted EBITDA of US$0.8-million, reflecting a seasonally softer quarter as project activity ramps up. He expects a stronger second quarter, with both systems contributing more meaningfully and revenue and Adjusted EBITDA rising to US$10.1-million and US$4.5-million.

Stanley said the company’s second system was deployed during the first quarter, but its work in the United Arab Emirates was disrupted by the conflict in the Middle East, shifting a more meaningful contribution into Q2.

Stanley said the broader thesis remains intact, with nation-states increasingly looking to monetize domestic resources and reduce supply-chain vulnerability. Metatek’s backlog stood at US$69-million in late March, up 50% during the month, helped by a US$20-million-plus contract with a repeat customer in Africa.

Metatek recently completed a C$35-million IPO and C$5-million secondary offering, generating about US$22-million in net proceeds for the company, primarily for fleet expansion and debt repayment.

Stanley said long sales cycles and exclusive access to technology create entry barriers. He expects Metatek’s agreement with Lockheed Martin to convert into a seven-year global exclusivity arrangement after commitments to buy two more systems.

The analyst noted the stock trades at 6.5x his fiscal 2027 Adjusted EBITDA estimate, an 80% discount to BlackSky Technology. Stanley said three-system utilization could support a C$13 target, while a five-system expansion could support C$15.

Stanley expects Metatek to generate Adjusted EBITDA of US$16-million on revenue of US$38-million in fiscal 2026, improving to US$27-million on revenue of US$60-million in fiscal 2027.

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