Keel Infrastructure wins huge price target raise from this analyst

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner raised his target on Keel Infrastructure (Keel Infrastructure Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:KEEL) to C$10.00 from C$5.50, maintaining an “Outperform” rating as the company moves closer to signing its first high-performance computing lease.

In his May 12 note, Toner said Keel’s Q1/26 update showed progress on its transition from crypto mining toward HPC infrastructure, with 100$ zoning approval now secured at its three priority development sites: Panther Creek, Sharon and Moses Lake.

“The de-risking of the 2026 execution plan, marked by 100% zoning approval at primary sites and the accumulation of US$533MM in total liquidity, provides a clear, funded path to signing a customer lease,” Toner said.

Keel reported Q1 revenue of US$37-million, down 45$ year-over-year because of lower bitcoin prices and higher network difficulty. The company posted a net loss of US$145.4-million and Adjusted EBITDA of negative US$17-million.

Toner said Keel’s US$533-million in total liquidity as of May 8 gives management flexibility to advance its near-term development pipeline without raising dilutive capital before long-term contracted cash flows are secured.

Keel should benefit from scarce deliverable power in the PJM and Washington markets, helping close the valuation gap between crypto-mining multiples and high-growth infrastructure multiples.

Toner’s new target is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation that includes about US$5.0-billion of HPC value. He expects Keel to post Adjusted EBITDA of negative US$60.9-million on revenue of US$122.8-million in fiscal 2026, improving to positive US$12.7-million on revenue of US$93.6-million in fiscal 2027.

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