First Solar is a buy, this analyst says

On May 1, Roth Capital Markets analyst Philip Shen maintained a “Buy” rating and $300.00 price target on First Solar (First Solar Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FSLR), saying first-quarter results were solid and largely in line with expectations, with the key catalyst now shifting to a potential Section 232 decision on polysilicon.

“Heading into the print, the bulls were looking for a non-event, and that’s likely what we got,” Shen said, adding the near-term focus is on the expected policy outcome in May or June.

First Solar reported Q1 revenue of $1.0-billion, in line with expectations, while gross margin of 46.6% came in ahead of consensus. The improvement was driven by a higher mix of modules qualifying for U.S. 45X tax credits and lower freight costs, partially offset by lower average selling prices tied to geographic mix and tariffs.

Second-quarter guidance came in weaker, with shipments of about 3.7GW and Adjusted EBITDA of roughly $450-million, below prior expectations. Shen attributed the softer outlook primarily to seasonality rather than demand concerns, noting the company reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance.

Shen said First Solar has booked about 1.4GW of U.S. orders at roughly $0.35 per watt since its fourth-quarter call, ahead of buy-side expectations, supporting longer-term visibility. The company ended the quarter with a backlog of about $14-billion, representing roughly 48GW of contracted volume extending through 2030.

“While Q2 is weak, this is driven primarily by seasonality,” Shen said.

Shen said a potential Section 232 tariff on polysilicon could be a meaningful catalyst, with the White House considering options including a per-watt tariff or minimum import pricing structure.

For 2026, Shen maintained estimates of approximately $5.1-billion in revenue and $2.7-billion in Adjusted EBITDA, with earnings per share of $17.23. He expects those figures to improve to $5.85-billion in revenue and $3.09-billion in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027.

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