Enphase Energy is a buy, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Philip Shen maintained his “Buy” rating and $55.00 target on Enphase Energy (Enphase Energy Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:ENPH), saying the company remains well positioned in residential solar but investors may need to wait for tax equity pressures to ease before the stock works.

In an April 9 report, Shen said Enphase deserves a premium valuation because it remains the dominant global supplier of microinverters, with what he estimates is more than 90% market share. He said that leadership supports the company’s margin profile, cash generation and returns on capital, and underpins his $55 target, which is based on about 22 times projected 2027 non-GAAP EPS.

Still, Shen said the main near-term issue is the U.S. tax equity market.

“The primary risk to our ENPH thesis is that the slowdown in the tax equity market limits the supply of capital available to TPOs, thereby constraining 2026 US resi solar installations,” he said. He said some major banks may have paused certain 48E tax credit investments, tightening capital availability for residential solar projects and creating a headwind for 2026 volumes.

Even so, Shen said recent channel checks suggest Enphase’s Propel prepaid offering is gaining traction and could help the company take share, particularly in California. He added that there appears to be confidence around funding availability for Propel even in a tighter credit environment.

Outside the U.S., Shen said higher electricity prices in Europe following the Iran war are improving demand signals, particularly in the Netherlands, where changes to net metering and export penalties are creating a retrofit opportunity.

He estimated Enphase could generate roughly $125-million to $250-million of 2026 retrofit revenue in that market, although he said growth may be limited by the company’s higher pricing.

He also said Enphase could have longer-term upside in data centre power infrastructure, arguing the company has technology that could be adapted for emerging 800V DC architectures. He said that with Nvidia’s Rubin Ultra expected to drive design changes by the end of 2027, Enphase could unveil data centre-specific products within the next 12 months.

For now, Shen said investors should accumulate the shares opportunistically. Enphase is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 results on April 28.

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