It’s time to buy Curaleaf stock, this analyst says

Haywood Securities analyst Neal Gilmer reiterated his “Buy” rating and $5.00 price target on Curaleaf Holdings (Curaleaf Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CURA) following fourth-quarter 2025 results that were largely in line with expectations.

“International strength mitigated domestic pricing pressure,” Gilmer said in his February 27 report. “We recommend accumulating shares at current levels.”

Curaleaf reported Q4 revenue of $333.1-million, up 4.8% sequentially and 1.6% year-over-year, broadly matching forecasts. International revenue increased 65% year-over-year, helping offset ongoing price compression in certain U.S. markets. Adjusted gross margin was 49%, while Adjusted EBITDA came in at $69.0-million, representing a 20.7% margin.

The company generated $42.0-million in operating cash flow during the quarter and ended the period with $101.6-million in cash and $548.7-million in debt, net of discounts. In Q1/26, Curaleaf closed $500.0-million of senior secured notes at 11.5% due 2029, using proceeds to refinance existing debt.

Management guided Q1/26 revenue down mid-single digits sequentially due to typical seasonality. Full-year 2026 capex is expected to be approximately $80.0-million, with spending directed toward automation, international expansion and roughly 10 new store openings.

Gilmer said Curaleaf remains well-positioned given its broad U.S. footprint and international optionality, with additional growth opportunities tied to adult-use expansion in Maryland, Connecticut and Ohio, as well as potential future launches in states such as Pennsylvania.

He expects Curaleaf to generate $298.6-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $1.36-billion in fiscal 2026, improving to $323.2-million in EBITDA on revenue of $1.43-billion in fiscal 2027.

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