Is Trulieve Cannabis a buy right now?

Haywood Securities analyst Neal Gilmer reiterated his “Buy” rating and C$19.00 price target on Trulieve Cannabis (Trulieve Cannabis Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials CSE:TRUL) following in-line fourth-quarter 2025 results.

“Q4/25 results were in-line with our expectations on both revenue and EBITDA,” Gilmer said in a Feb. 26 note. “We continue to view Trulieve favourably in the U.S. market.”

Trulieve reported Q4 revenue of $293.1-million, up 1.7% sequentially and down 2.7% year-over-year, broadly in line with estimates. Gross margin was 59.8%, compared with 58.9% in Q3, while Adjusted EBITDA came in at $104.8-million, representing a 35.7% margin and slightly ahead of forecasts.

The company generated $59.0-million in operating cash flow and $56.0-million in free cash flow during the quarter, ending the year with $255.5-million in cash. Total debt, including leases and construction liabilities, stood at $563.6-million.

Retail revenue accounted for 93% of total revenue at $273.8-million. The company operated 234 dispensaries nationwide following new openings in Ohio and other markets.

Management guided Q1/26 revenue down low to mid-single digits sequentially due to seasonality, with full-year 2026 gross margins expected to remain similar to 2025 levels. The company expects at least $250.0-million in operating cash flow in 2026, with capex of approximately $85.0-million.

Gilmer made only modest revisions to his 2026 and 2027 estimates and continues to view Trulieve as well-positioned given its footprint in attractive U.S. markets and recent return to growth.

His C$19.00 target is based on 7.0x his 2027 EBITDA estimate, discounted at 15%.

Gilmer expects Trulieve to generate $401.8-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $1,177.7-million in fiscal 2026, improving to $415.4-million in EBITDA on revenue of $1,220.0-million in fiscal 2027.

-30-