High Tide. Buy, Sell or Hold?

Haywood Capital Markets reiterated a “Buy” rating and $8.00 price target on High Tide (High Tide Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:HITI) following “solid first-quarter 2026 results,” supported by continued international growth.

In a March 18 report, Haywood’s Neal Gilmer said revenue came in slightly ahead of expectations while EBITDA was in line, with the company continuing to scale its international operations, particularly through its Remexian platform.

“Overall we view the Q1 results as solid with revenue ahead of our forecast and in-line EBITDA,” he said.

High Tide, Canada’s largest cannabis retailer, operates 207 Canna Cabana stores across five provinces and has built a growing membership base through its discount club model.

The company reported Q1 revenue of $178.3-million, up 25.2% year-over-year and 8.7% sequentially, exceeding both Haywood’s $174.0-million estimate and $173.8-million consensus. Gross margins of 24.9% were in line with expectations, while Adjusted EBITDA of $11.5-million (6.4% margin) matched forecasts.

High Tide generated $2.9-million in free cash flow during the quarter and $16.8-million over the past four quarters, ending Q1 with $46.4-million in cash and $59.6-million in debt.

Gilmer said the company’s core retail business continued to grow despite weather-related disruptions in Ontario, with same-store sales rising 0.5% year-over-year and total bricks-and-mortar revenue increasing 10% year-over-year.

Membership growth remained a key driver, with Cabana Club members surpassing 2.58 million, up 47% year-over-year, and ELITE subscribers exceeding 162,000, up 100%.

Internationally, Gilmer highlighted strong momentum from Remexian, which generated $25-million in revenue in the quarter and increased its market share to 10.3% in the three months ended December 2025, up from 6.5% in the prior period.

“In our opinion, High Tide has demonstrated the strong retail prowess to continue to be the leader in Canada,” Gilmer said. “In addition, the company now has international exposure in Germany, with possible further expansion in the future.”

Haywood expects High Tide to generate $739.1-million in revenue and $62.7-million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026, improving to $839.2-million in revenue and $87.0-million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2027.

“We recommend investors have exposure based on its revenue growth profile and positive EBITDA and cash flow,” Gilmer added.

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