Galaxy Digital’s crypto/AI story not as risky as it sounds, analyst says

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained his “Outperform” rating and $70.00 price target on Galaxy Digital (Galaxy Digital Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:GLXY) following the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, arguing that the stock’s sum-of-the-parts valuation is becoming increasingly compelling despite ongoing volatility in crypto markets.

“While investors may be reticent to combine crypto risk with an AI data centre story, we believe GLXY’s valuation on a SOTP basis is becoming too attractive to ignore,” Toner said in a Feb. 4 research report.

Galaxy reported a Q4/25 net loss of $482-million, reversing a $505-million net income in the prior quarter and bringing the full-year loss to $241-million, or $(0.61) per share, compared with net income of $532-million in fiscal 2024. Diluted EPS was $(1.08) in the quarter versus $1.01 in Q3/25 and Q4/24. Adjusted EBITDA was $(518)-million in the quarter, down sharply from $630-million in Q3/25, though full-year Adjusted EBITDA remained positive at $34-million.

Toner said results were heavily impacted by a roughly 24% decline in total crypto market capitalization during the quarter, which drove significant unrealized losses in the Treasury & Corporate segment. While he would have preferred to see tighter risk management in a quarter where major crypto assets fell more than 20%, he noted that losses in the treasury book were broadly in line with declines in Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.

Liquidity strengthened meaningfully during the quarter, with Galaxy ending Q4 with $2.6-billion in cash and stablecoins, up 36% sequentially following $1.6-billion in net proceeds from strategic equity and exchangeable note issuances. That balance is up 168% year over year from $1.0-billion at the end of 2024. Total equity stood at $3.0-billion at year-end, down 4% quarter over quarter but up 38% year over year, reflecting the impact of the capital raises. Total assets increased 59% year over year to $11.3-billion, despite net digital assets and investments declining 22% sequentially to $1.7-billion due to market depreciation.

Despite the quarter’s losses, Galaxy delivered record full-year adjusted gross profit of $505-million from its digital assets business, up 67% year over year. Fourth-quarter adjusted gross profit of $51-million declined sharply from $318-million in Q3/25, when Digital Asset Treasury Strategies generated outsized advisory fees. Treasury & Corporate posted an adjusted gross loss of $454-million in Q4, compared with a $408-million profit in the prior quarter. The data centre segment continued to scale, with adjusted gross profit rising to $4.6-million from $2.7-million in Q3, and full-year adjusted gross profit reaching $7.2-million.

Toner said there is continued progress at Galaxy’s Helios high-performance computing campus in Texas, which he views as a key driver of long-term value. As of January 2026, Galaxy has secured ERCOT approval for an additional 830 megawatts of power, lifting total approved capacity to more than 1.6 gigawatts, with long-term expansion potential of up to 3.4 gigawatts. The site is under a 15-year lease with CoreWeave, which has committed to the full initial 800 megawatts of capacity, a partnership Toner said is expected to generate more than $1-billion in average annual revenue. Initial power delivery is scheduled for the first quarter of 2026, with a second tranche expected in the second half of the year.

Toner said the combination of improving liquidity, record digital asset profitability on a full-year basis, and growing visibility at Helios supports his constructive outlook, even as near-term results remain sensitive to crypto market swings.

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