Forget robotaxis and buy Lyft stock, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Rohit Kulkarni reiterated a “Buy” rating and $25.00 12-month price target on Lyft (LYFT Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:LYFT) ahead of fourth-quarter results due after market close on February 10, saying an in-line to modest beat could trigger a relief rally.

In a Feb. 3 earnings preview, Kulkarni said Lyft’s risk-reward looks highly asymmetric at current levels, with shares trading around 6.0x 2027E free cash flow, and argued investors are overestimating the medium-term impact of robotaxis. He compared Lyft’s setup to Uber Technologies in early 2025, citing accelerating gross bookings, rising margins, and improving pricing and rider metrics. Near-term catalysts include California insurance reform benefits and likely autonomous-vehicle headlines in the first half of 2026.

For the quarter, Kulkarni said shares should react positively to gross bookings above $5.10-billion and Adjusted EBITDA above $150-million, with his estimates slightly above Street expectations. For the first-quarter outlook, he sees strength if guidance midpoints exceed $4.92-billion in gross bookings and $140-million in Adjusted EBITDA. He also expects rides growth above 17% year over year in Q4, with active rider growth above 18% viewed as a positive catalyst.

Kulkarni highlighted California’s SB 371 insurance reforms, effective Jan. 1, 2026, which he expects to generate at least $200-million in savings and to benefit Lyft disproportionately, given roughly 30% of gross bookings come from the state. He also pointed to improving rider metrics from partnerships, including United Airlines, DoorDash, Chase, and others, and said recent acquisitions such as FreeNow and TBR should accelerate bookings in the first half of 2026, with TBR expected to be margin accretive.

On autonomous vehicles, Kulkarni said sentiment should improve incrementally with each partnership launch, including Lyft’s collaboration with Waymo, even as first-party AV deployment remains an overhang for the sector.

Kulkarni said Lyft should generate $525-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $6.50-billion in fiscal 2025, improving to $684-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $7.43-billion in fiscal 2026.

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