AI is driving Five9 results, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Richard Baldry is reiterating his “Buy” rating and $40.00 price target on Five9 (Five9 Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FIVN) despite slowing revenue growth, arguing record bookings and AI momentum position the company for improved sentiment in 2026.

In a Feb. 19  note, Baldry said Five9’s fourth-quarter results were largely in line with expectations, though growth decelerated further. Q4/25 revenue of $300.3-million matched his $299.6-million estimate and grew 7.8% year-over-year, down from 8.2% in Q3 and well below the prior six-quarter range of 12.4% to 16.6%.

First-quarter guidance of $296.5-million to $302.5-million implies 6% to 8% year-over-year growth, raising the risk of further near-term deceleration. Baldry trimmed his 2026 revenue forecast to $1,261.0-million from $1,277.0-million, aligning with the upper end of company guidance.

However, he pointed to record bookings and strength in AI-related enterprise revenue, which grew 50% year-over-year, with bookings up more than 100%.

“Record bookings and strengths across its AI-related metrics offer a path to improved sentiment in 2026,” Baldry said, adding that with a new CEO taking over, guidance “should be aiming conservative to offer upside starting his tenure.”

On profitability, pro forma EPS of $0.80 met his estimate, while Adjusted EBITDA of $77.3-million exceeded his $72.8-million forecast.

For 2026, management guided to pro forma EPS of $3.15 to $3.21.

Baldry trimmed his 2026 EPS estimate modestly to $3.21 from $3.24.He forecasts Five9 will generate $302.7-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $1,261.0-million in fiscal 2026.

Baldry noted that Five9’s shares have fallen approximately 92% from their peak, leaving the stock trading at roughly 1.1x run-rate revenue, more than 50% below his peer group average of 2.4x.

“With guidance calling for records for both revenues and AEBITDA in 2026 … we believe Five9’s strengthening AI technologies, leading SaaS franchise and over $1B revenue scale are solid foundations to support its re-acceleration effort,” he said.

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