This Canadian tech stock will beat the market, ATB says

ATB Capital Markets said on Jan. 8 that discussions with Real Matters (Real Matters Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:REAL) at its 14th Annual Institutional Investor Conference reinforced a constructive outlook into 2026, as conditions in the U.S. mortgage market show early signs of stabilization.

ATB analyst Martin Toner said investor conversations centered on a gradual recovery in mortgage activity, with particular focus on improving refinance volumes, rising lender participation and sustained growth in the company’s Title segment.

“While broader mortgage activity remains below historical norms, management noted improving conditions in refinance activity and increased lender engagement, reinforcing the view that market conditions are stabilizing,” Toner said.

The Title business was a central theme at the conference, with management highlighting growing volumes and an expanding lender roster as key drivers within Real Matters’ target operating model. Toner noted that incremental volume recovery, especially in Title, carries meaningful operating leverage, positioning the company to benefit disproportionately as activity improves.

ATB said 2025 was largely a “building year,” highlighted by the onboarding of a new Tier 1 lender in the Title segment that effectively doubled run-rate volumes. The firm believes this momentum underscores Real Matters’ competitive positioning, particularly as many Title competitors are insurance-focused players for whom escrow and notary services are non-core.

Toner added that M&A remains a longer-term option, particularly deals that could leverage Real Matters’ data assets. He also cited recent vertical integration moves by large U.S. lenders as a potential tailwind that could support market share gains for independent network managers like Real Matters.

The company remains committed to its long-term target operating model, which implies normalized Adjusted EBITDA of $50-million to $65-million in Appraisal and $30-million to $45-million in Title under healthier refinance and purchase market conditions.

ATB maintained its “Outperform” rating and $10.50 target price on Real Matters shares.

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