This Canadian security stock is a buy, analyst says

Beacon Securities analyst Gabriel Leung has maintained a “Buy” rating and $2.25 target price on Avante (Avante Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:XX) in a Jan. 20 update, citing continued progress in expanding the company’s technology-driven public safety offering beyond its traditional executive residential base.

Leung noted Avante announced it has secured a contract with an undisclosed Ontario police force for the deployment of its Gunshot Detection system across three high-crime locations. The system uses energy-signature detection rather than traditional acoustic methods to identify and triangulate gunfire, which Leung said allows for higher accuracy and materially fewer false alarms in both indoor and outdoor environments.

Each sensor can cover up to 795,000 square feet and pinpoint gunfire to within roughly 25 feet, while operating on solar power without fixed infrastructure. The technology has achieved an approximate 0.5% false-alarm rate and is designated under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Safety Act.

Beyond the initial hardware deployment, Leung noted that the police force will also use Avante’s human-in-the-loop monitoring and response service, creating a recurring revenue stream as alerts are validated and escalated to support rapid law-enforcement decision-making.

While financial terms were not disclosed, Leung said Avante views the deployment as a foundation for a longer-term relationship, with potential to expand into additional technologies and services, including its MAST platform.

“We also view this as evidence of the company’s ongoing commitment to further expanding its business beyond its executive residential roots,” Leung said.

Looking ahead, Leung identified Avante’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, expected in early-to-mid February, as the next financial catalyst. He is forecasting quarterly revenue of $9-million and EBITDA of $375,000. On valuation, he said the shares are trading at roughly 0.6x EV/Sales and 6x EV/EBITDA on March 2027 estimates, which he views as attractive given the potential for faster-than-expected growth in new services, continued margin expansion, and possible acquisitions supported by Avante’s cash position and unused $12-million credit facility.

Leung expects Avante to generate $2.0-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $36.5-million in revenue in fiscal 2026, improving to $4.1-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $42.8-million in revenue in fiscal 2027.

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