Is there any reason to own Cineplex stock?

National Bank Financial analyst Adam Shine said Jan. 15 that while he has lowered his forecast for Cineplex (Cineplex Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CGX) to reflect weaker-than-anticipated box office results in December, he believes optimism for 2026 remains intact and expects momentum to build after the first quarter.

As reported by the Globe and Mail, Shine maintained his “Outperform” rating on Cineplex shares but trimmed his target price by $0.50 to $14.00. The Street average target stands at $13.13.

“Gower Street Analytics expects the domestic box office (U.S. and Canada) to grow 11% this year. We’re at up 9%,” Shine said. He added that while Hollywood unions are approaching another round of triennial negotiations with studios, writers’ contracts expiring May 1, and directors’ and actors’ agreements expiring June 30, he expects continued debate around artificial intelligence but sees little risk of labour disruptions.

Shine also pointed to encouraging industry data from Cinema United, the movie exhibitors’ trade group, which reported in mid-December that the number of habitual moviegoers, defined as attending at least six films annually, rose 8%, loyalty program subscriptions increased 15%, and Gen Z boosted average annual movie attendance to 6.1 visits from 4.9. Cinema United also projects the number of wide theatrical releases will rise to 115 in 2026, up from 111 in 2025 and 94 in 2024.

Shine warned, however, that near-term momentum may be muted. Films released in December 2025, including the third Avatar installment, are tracking below prior entries in the franchise and are expected to contribute less box office lift early in 2026, reinforcing his view that traction will build after Q1.

On Tuesday (Jan. 13), Cineplex reported fourth-quarter box office revenue of $140.7-million, down 4.7% year-over-year and below Shine’s $153.6-million estimate as well as the Street’s $167.5-million forecast. The weaker performance prompted him to lower his full-year earnings expectations.

“While movie exhibition didn’t face any major shocks following prior impacts from COVID and the writers’ and actors’ strikes, 2025 got off to a slow start with a particularly weak March and also faced year-over-year declines in August, October, and November,” Shine said.

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