This bull market is on solid footing, analyst says

Paradigm Capital analyst Aazan Habib said in a Dec. 1 global equities and metals outlook that monthly charts “continue to reflect primary bull markets,” with long-term trend structures across major indices still pointing higher.

He noted that the equal-weight MSCI ACWI is “holding its breakout through the 2021 highs,” confirming that the global equity cycle remains intact. The S&P 500 continues to find support at its rising four-year moving average. This pattern has held throughout the post-GFC bull market and again during this year’s tariff-driven volatility. He flagged 7,000 and then 7,500 as the next major upside levels, with support at 6,800 and 6,100.

Canadian equities stand out within the global mix. Habib said the TSX Composite has cleared its long-standing 30,000 target, putting a 38,000–40,000 range in play as the next structural objective. Further down the market-cap spectrum, the TSX Small Cap Index has broken out of a nearly 20-year base, “confirming a new primary bull market.”

Tactically, he said rate-cut odds, credit spreads, crypto weakness and the risk of rising Japanese bond yields, potentially pressuring the Yen and triggering carry-trade volatility, remain key watchpoints.

“We would maintain a positive bias on risk assets if the S&P 500 is holding above 6,800,” he said, adding that breadth models are attempting to turn higher but require confirmation.

Habib pointed to copper miners and biotech as the most improved thematic groups in Paradigm’s momentum rankings, alongside medical devices, global infrastructure, lithium and silver miners. Weaker groups include Bitcoin and speculative tech.

On commodities, he said silver is “the new gold,” breaking out of a 45-year cup-and-handle formation that implies targets in the high-$60s with potential beyond $100. Gold remains in a structural bull market with a long-term target near $5,000 and possible upside toward $10,000 “over the coming years.” Copper continues to screen as the strongest risk-reward trade as the LME benchmark begins to emerge from a 15-year base.

Crude oil, he said, is showing early contrarian appeal. While momentum remains neutral, breadth strength in energy equities suggests the market may be pricing a bottom. “We need to see WTI above $65 to wake it up,” he added.

Habib also highlighted Paradigm’s preferred setups from its monthly-chart and quant-screen review. The firm’s top ideas include Champion Iron, Cabral Gold, Taseko, Omai Gold, and Talon Metals.

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