Netflix won’t win Warner Brothers, this investor says

Puck founding partner Matt Belloni says Hollywood is bracing for unprecedented upheaval as Skydance launches a hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, triggering what could become the industry’s most consequential studio bidding war in decades.

Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Dec. 9, Belloni said the saga has “permeated the culture,” drawing commentary across media and politics.

“Trump is now involved, it’s all-encompassing,” he said, while leaving Hollywood’s creative and corporate ranks “going crazy” as they confront two outcomes they equally dislike.

Skydance’s hostile offer followed Warner Bros. Discovery’s move to sell its film studio and Max streaming service to Netflix, which holds matching rights. Belloni said that, inside Hollywood, support often hinges less on strategic fit than on which buyer is more likely to be blocked by regulators.

“There are lots of people in Hollywood rooting for one or both of these deals to get blocked so the studio stays independent,” he said.

Belloni stressed that valuation mechanics remain highly subjective, particularly around Versant, the bundle of cable networks that would remain in a “stub” company under the Skydance proposal. Analysts’ estimates range from US$1 to US$5 per share, creating uncertainty around the headline figures.

“We actually don’t know,” he said. “It’s very subjective.”

He said a key question is whether Netflix would raise its bid if Skydance increases its offer.

“There is a point at which they will no longer go up,” Belloni said, noting that Netflix shareholders have already erased roughly US$100-billion in market value since the process became public. “They have to watch that in a way the Ellisons don’t.”

Belloni said personal dynamics matter as well.

“Ted [Sarandos] and David [Zaslav] are peers,” he said, whereas Zaslav may not view David Ellison the same way. That, combined with Netflix’s scale, makes Warner leadership believe Netflix would be a “better steward” of the assets.

The Ellisons’ long-standing appetite for roll-ups, echoing Larry Ellison’s Oracle playbook, also explains their persistence, Belloni said. Skydance founder David Ellison has spent years positioning his company as a consolidator after his sister Megan Ellison’s high-quality, low-profit film slate.

Asked where the bidding war ends, Belloni said the likely outcome is that Netflix eventually steps back.

“The Ellisons feel like they need this. Netflix does not,” he said, unless there are strategic motives yet undisclosed.

He also said Hollywood is only beginning to grapple with the rationalizations that would follow either merger. Skydance’s plan contemplates roughly US$6-billion in synergies, double Netflix’s estimate, because combining two legacy studios inevitably means overlapping film, TV and news operations. Netflix, by contrast, would have fewer redundancies because it lacks theatrical distribution, third-party licensing and several traditional studio functions.

“This is going to be remembered,” Belloni said. “A perfect storm of interest: Comcast circling, Skydance pushing hard, and Netflix unexpectedly willing to jump in. No one in Hollywood thought we’d see a fight like this.”

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