Roth Capital Markets analyst Darren Aftahi initiated coverage of American Bitcoin on Dec. 10 with a “Buy” rating and US$4.00 price target, arguing the company offers one of the last “pure-play” ways to gain levered exposure to Bitcoin as most miners pivot toward AI/HPC infrastructure.
Miami-based ABTC, majority-owned (64%) by Hut 8, operates a hybrid self-mining/treasury accumulation model designed to grow both total Bitcoin holdings and BTC per share. Formed through a carve-out from Hut 8 and launched as a standalone Nasdaq issuer in September, ABTC outsources power, construction and operations to Hut 8 under long-term agreements, keeping SG&A materially below peers and allowing capital to flow almost entirely into ASIC capacity and BTC accumulation.
Aftahi called this structure “capital-efficient scale,” noting ABTC has already reached ~25 EH/s and is targeting 50 EH/s at sub-15 J/TH efficiency, roughly one new data-centre deployment per year. Contracted capacity sits near 325 MW, and the company holds ~4,000 BTC today.
The key financial lever, he said, is ABTC’s US$2-billion ATM program, which allows the company to toggle opportunistically between ASIC purchases and direct BTC accumulation. Aftahi estimates roughly US$377-million of additional ASIC spending is required to reach 50 EH/s, leaving ~US$1.46-billion available for strategic BTC reserve expansion. Whether this reserve growth is executed “in a disciplined, BTC-per-share accretive manner” will be central to investor confidence.
Aftahi expects the next 12–24 months to be driven by three catalysts: the pace of scale to 50 EH/s, opportunistic reserve expansion, particularly during BTC drawdowns, and selective roll-ups of legacy mining fleets as competitors divert resources toward HPC/AI. He added that reaching scale ahead of the 2028 halving materially improves ABTC’s ability to leverage BTC-backed financing and reduce future equity issuance.
Aftahi forecasts FY26 Adjusted EBITDA of US$135.7-million on US$359.8-million of revenue, improving further as Bitcoin holdings and hash rate expand. For FY25, he models negative US$46.9-million EBITDA on US$182.2-million of revenue, reflecting early-stage scaling and ATM deployment.
His US$4.00 target applies a 10× 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple, consistent with remaining pure-play peers, and incorporates ABTC’s forecast 27,000+ BTC reserves at a long-term US$100,000 BTC price assumption.
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