Shopify still a “Top Pick” at National Bank

National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse reiterated an “Outperform” rating and US $200.00 target price on Shopify (Shopify Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:SHOP) after the Ottawa-based company posted what he called “solid” third-quarter results and another upbeat outlook.

“Given today’s results and outlook, we continue to see Shopify delivering outsized growth along with scaling operating leverage,” Tse said in his Nov. 4 report, adding that the firm’s DCF-based target implies 18.1× EV/Sales on updated FY2026 estimates.

Shopify reported 32% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, above both National Bank and consensus expectations, with revenue of US$2.84-billion versus National Bank’s US$2.75-billion forecast. Merchant Solutions revenue rose 32% to US$2.15-billion, materially ahead of estimates, driven by Gross Merchandise Volume of US$92.0-billion, also up 32% year over year and above Street expectations. Subscription Solutions revenue grew 15% to US$699-million, in line with forecasts.

Capital discipline remained “solid,” Tse said, though adjusted operating income margin dipped to 16.4%, down 220 bps year over year, largely reflecting revenue mix.

Tse noted three key points for investors to pay attention to. First, Shopify’s ability to deliver accelerating growth at its current scale remains “impressive,” with Q3 marking the company’s fastest growth since late 2021. Second, he said Shopify’s AI-commerce initiatives are “just starting,” citing partnerships with OpenAI, Microsoft Copilot and Perplexity, and noting that orders driven by AI-based search have risen eleven-fold since January. Third, he flagged multiple growth levers still in early stages, including international expansion, higher attach rates, enterprise, offline retail and B2B, now with an increasingly integrated AI layer.

“We think it’s still early days for those growth levers (despite consistent 25%+ growth),” he said. The stock remains one of his top picks for the year ahead.

Tse said Shopify should produce US$1.99-billion in Adjusted EBITDA on US$11.46-billion in revenue in fiscal 2025, rising to US$2.65-billion on US$14.24-billion in fiscal 2026.

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