Docebo. Buy, Sell or Hold?

In a Nov. 7 report, ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner maintained his “Sector Perform” rating and $50.00 price target on Docebo (Docebo Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:DCBO) following third-quarter results that modestly exceeded expectations and reflected improving growth momentum after a soft start to the year.

Toronto-based Docebo provides a cloud-based, artificial intelligence–powered e-learning platform for enterprise and government clients.

The company reported Q3 2025 consolidated revenue of $61.6-million, up 11.2% year over year, surpassing consensus at $60.6-million and slightly above its guidance range of $61.0–61.2-million. Adjusted EBITDA was US$12.4-million (20.1% margin), ahead of expectations of $11.5-million and above the company’s guidance range of 19.0–19.5%.

Annual recurring revenue (ARR) rose 10% year over year to $235.6-million, with incremental ARR of $2.5-million, down from US$8.0-million in the prior quarter. Toner noted that ARR was temporarily affected by the accelerated wind-down of Docebo’s Dayforce OEM partnership, and that excluding this impact, ARR grew 14% year over year.

For the fourth quarter, management guided to revenue of $62.0–62.2-million and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.5–21.0%, both ahead of consensus estimates. The company also raised its full-year 2025 outlook, now calling for subscription revenue growth of 11.75% (from 10.75–11.75%), total revenue growth of 11.4% (from 10–11%), and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% (from 17–18%).

Toner said the company’s recent FedRAMP certification, achieved in May 2025, was an important catalyst, unlocking access to the U.S. federal, state, and local (SLED) market estimated at roughly $2.7-billion. Docebo has already secured its first two U.S. federal customers, the Department of Energy and the Air Force Cyber Academy, ahead of its original fiscal 2026 timeline.

“We acknowledge the Q3 result could represent an inflection point and a swift recovery from weak results earlier this year,” Toner said, while noting that he remains cautious until there is more evidence of sustained growth and improved sentiment across the enterprise SaaS sector.

Toner forecasts fiscal 2025 revenue of $241.7-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $43.3-million, improving to $258.8-million and $52.7-million in fiscal 2026. His $50.00 target price is based on a discounted cash flow model using an 11.5% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate, implying a 2.7x EV/Sales multiple by 2033.

Toner said he views Docebo’s expanding enterprise footprint and early FedRAMP traction as positive indicators of renewed growth momentum in 2026.

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