Altus Group. Buy, Sell or Hold?

National Bank Capital Markets analyst Richard Tse says Altus Group’s (Altus Group Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:AIF) 2025 Investor Day delivered a series of measures aimed at sharpening the company’s focus on its core software business, improving transparency, and returning capital to shareholders.

In a Nov. 20 note, he maintained his “Sector Perform” rating and $52.00 price target, calling the near-term risk–reward “fairly balanced” as the company works through a multi-year reset.

Altus Group, a Toronto-based provider of software, data and analytics for the commercial real estate industry, announced a mid-term objective to exit 2027 as a Rule-of-40 company at the consolidated level.

Management also initiated a sale process for its Appraisals & Development Advisory segment, signing a letter of intent for the Appraisals business while reviewing other non-core Analytics products and services that dilute growth and retention. Tse said he views the portfolio optimization as a key potential catalyst for a valuation re-rating.

The board approved up to $500-million in capital returns through a substantial issuer bid and normal-course issuer bid. The SIB, expected to launch around Nov. 26, will allow Altus to repurchase up to $350-million of shares via a Dutch auction priced between $50 and $57. The company also plans to begin quarterly disclosure of software, VMS, data and services revenue lines, along with ARR and retention metrics, starting with Q4’25. Management further signalled its intent to pursue a U.S. dual listing in 2027 to increase visibility, without raising capital.

Tse said Investor Day also offered a clearer view of Altus’s strategy to monetize its expanding ARGUS Intelligence portfolio, building on the company’s leadership with ARGUS Enterprise, widely used for commercial property valuation and cash-flow forecasting in the U.S. and Canada.

“We think the announced measures are positive steps toward adding focus to what has been a complex product story,” he said, but cautioned that the CRE market’s slow pace of technology adoption makes 2027 the practical timeline for full execution.

Tse expects Altus to generate $102.8-million of Adjusted EBITDA on $528.8-million of revenue in fiscal 2025, rising to $129.7-million on $565.2-million of revenue in fiscal 2026.

“Bottom line, we think the announced measures are positive, but the risk-to-reward is fairly balanced in the interim,” he said.

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