This analyst just raised his price target on IMAX

Roth Capital Markets analyst Eric Handler said in an Oct. 14 earnings preview that IMAX  (IMAX Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:IMAX) delivered record third-quarter global box office results, supported by accelerating market share, strong local-language titles, and faster-than-expected network expansion in high-revenue markets.

Handler maintained his “Buy” rating and raised his 12-month target price to US$40.00 from US$36.00, based on 12.5× his 2026 EBITDA estimate.

“IMAX’s strategic initiatives helped drive record 3Q GBO results and its second-highest quarterly gross ever,” Handler said. “Local-language titles have been a source of strength, and network expansion is occurring at a faster-than-projected pace in markets with above-average revenue per screen.”

He expects a strong film slate through the remainder of 2025, led by Avatar: Fire and Ash, with further momentum into 2026 and 2027.

Handler raised his Q3 projections for global box office to US$360-million, up 51% year over year and well ahead of his earlier US$278-million forecast. Net revenue and fully consolidated EBITDA estimates were lifted to US$105-million (+17%) and a Street-high US$50-million (+29%), respectively.

GBO grew across all major regions, including +29% in North America, +35% in China, and +95% internationally excluding China. In North America, IMAX achieved a record 6% market share, hovering near an all-time high on a trailing-twelve-month basis.

Handler noted that “IMAX had four movies in the quarter exceed US$50-million in GBO, a first for the company,” led by Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle at US$72-million, followed by F1 (US$54-million), Superman (US$54-million), and Fantastic Four: First Steps (US$52-million).

Seven Hollywood titles posted opening-weekend market shares above 10%, and IMAX’s appeal extended beyond “Filmed for IMAX” content, with Demon Slayer and One Battle After Another topping 18% opening-weekend shares.

Driven by GBO strength and a stable cost base, Handler forecasts content-solutions gross margin of 70%, up from 54.6% a year earlier, with total EBITDA margin at 47.8%, among the highest in company history.

Looking to Q4 2025, he expects GBO of US$338-million (+66%), net revenue of US$127-million (+37%), and EBITDA of US$57-million (+52%), supported by Avatar: Fire and Ash and titles such as Tron: Ares, The Running Man, Wicked: For Good, and Zootopia 2. He projects Avatar: Fire and Ash alone will generate US$167-million in IMAX GBO, surpassing Avatar: The Way of Water’s US$151-million in 4Q22.

Handler said IMAX should produce Adjusted EBITDA of US$182.4-million (prior est. US$172.0-million) on revenue of US$410.0-million (prior US$400.4-million) in fiscal 2025, improving to US$201.3-million (prior US$187.8-million) on revenue of US$443.4-million (prior US$428.4-million) in fiscal 2026.

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