Shopify wins price target raise at Baird

Baird analyst Colin Sebastian raised his 12-month target price for Shopify (Shopify Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:SHOP) to US$170 from US$160 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating in an Oct. 7 report.

His new target is above the current analyst average of US$160.21.

In August, Shopify reported a strong second-quarter 2025 result, which showed 31% year-over-year revenue growth and a 16% free cash flow margin, marking the company’s eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit free cash flow margins. Revenue rose to US$2.68-billion from US$2.05-billion a year earlier, while gross profit climbed to US$1.30-billion from US$1.05-billion. Operating income reached US$291-million versus US$241-million, and free cash flow increased to US$422-million from US$333-million.

“(These) results are the payoff from bold bets we made years ago,” said Harley Finkelstein, Shopify’s president. “The investments we’re making now will fuel our next chapter. At Shopify, innovation never stops. No matter how good the numbers look, there’s always a new frontier in commerce — and we’ll continue to lead the way.”

Chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister highlighted broad-based momentum across geographies.

“Shopify delivered another outstanding quarter, with both GMV and revenue growth rates accelerating in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific, quarter over quarter. Europe was a particular source of strength, where GMV grew 42% on a constant currency basis,” he said. “Merchants of every size, from first-time founders to global brands, are choosing Shopify to grow their businesses, and their success is what is driving our success.”

Shopify expects third-quarter revenue to grow at a mid-to-high twenties percentage rate year over year, with gross profit dollars rising at a low-twenties rate. Operating expenses are forecast to be 38%–39% of revenue, and free cash flow margins are expected to remain in the mid-to-high teens.

Shopify’s strong growth trajectory and sustained profitability margins continue to support bullish sentiment on the stock, with Sebastian’s revised target reflecting confidence in the company’s execution and global expansion momentum.

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