Is Shopify worth its pricey valuation?

RBC Dominion Securities analyst Paul Treiber maintained an “Outperform” rating and raised his price target on Shopify  (Shopify Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:SHOP) to US$200.00 from US$170.00, saying third-party data indicate the company’s growth momentum and market share gains continued through the third quarter and that both Q3 results and Q4 guidance are likely to exceed Street expectations slightly.

The average analyst target is US$161.21.

“Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, U.S. retail sales data for September isn’t available,” Treiber said. “Assuming U.S. e-commerce sales growth in September was similar to July and August, up 8% year-over-year, e-commerce sales in Q3 strengthened versus Q2’s 6.7% increase. Based on the delta between Shopify’s actual GMV and U.S. commerce last quarter, we estimate Shopify’s Q3 GMV grew 32% year-over-year to $92-billion, above consensus at $89.1-billion (up 27.8%) and RBC’s forecast of $89.6-billion (up 28.5%).”

As reported by the Globe and Mail, Treiber said third-party indicators show healthy merchant growth and continued share gains.

“Store Leads data show Shopify’s total merchants rose 13% year-over-year, while Shopify Plus merchants grew 21%, both consistent with Q2,” he said. “Enterprise customer wins such as Dickies, Forever 21, and ALDO highlight ongoing strength in brand adoption. Apptopia data also show Shop App monthly active users up 29% year-over-year, an acceleration from 26% in Q2.”

With GMV tracking above expectations, Treiber said both revenue and adjusted earnings per share likely exceeded consensus by a wider margin than the recent average, though the upside is “likely smaller than Q2’s beat.”

Looking ahead, he expects Shopify’s Q4 guidance to slightly top consensus, which currently calls for revenue to grow 26% quarter-over-quarter, just below its three-year average of 27%.

“Strong market share gains and ongoing e-commerce strength suggest Q4 guidance will be slightly above expectations,” he said.

Treiber added that Shopify continues to justify a premium valuation, supported by its growth trajectory and investor optimism around AI-driven innovation. “Shopify remains one of the most compelling organic growth stories in our coverage,” he said. “It trades at 16× next-12-month EV/Sales, above its three-year average of 10× and above high-growth SaaS peers at 11×.”

The revised US$200 price target is based on a 15× 2027 estimated EV/Sales multiple, rolled forward from 2026 estimates.

“Given Shopify’s strong momentum and market enthusiasm for its AI initiatives, we believe the shares will continue to trade near the high end of their historical range,” Treiber said.

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