Tecsys is still undervalued, this analyst says

Ventum Capital Markets analyst Amr Ezzat maintained a “Buy” rating and C$47.00 target price for Tecsys (Tecsys Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:TCS) in a Sept. 2 preview of first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, expected after market close on Sept. 4.

Montreal-based Tecsys provides enterprise supply chain management software and services.

Ezzat said he is modelling revenue of $46.1-million and Adjusted EBITDA of $3.0-million for the quarter, representing year-over-year growth of 9.0% and a margin of 6.5%. That is slightly below the Street’s forecast of $47.0-million in revenue and $3.4-million of EBITDA. Tecsys is guiding to full-year revenue growth of 8%–10%, compared with Ventum’s pre-reporting estimate of 9.6%.

“Our focus remains squarely on SaaS, the core value driver,” Ezzat said, projecting SaaS revenue of $18.5-million in Q1, up 21% year over year. That follows full-year SaaS revenue growth of 29.2% in fiscal 2025, with management guiding 20%–22% growth in fiscal 2026. Professional services revenue is expected to rise 5.0% year over year to $14.1-million, while maintenance and support continues to decline structurally, falling 5.0% to $8.3-million. Hardware sales are forecast to increase 10% to $4.4-million.”

“With SaaS margins set to expand meaningfully in the coming years, we see a clear path to a quintupling of EBITDA, a story that rewards patience,” he said.

Current fiscal 2026 guidance calls for EBITDA margins of 8%–9%, compared with Ventum’s 8.7% and the Street’s 8.6%.

Ezzat said Tecsys delivered a mixed fourth quarter in fiscal 2025, with revenue slightly ahead of expectations but EBITDA missing modestly on heavier operating expenses. SaaS revenue grew 29.5% year over year, broadly in line with forecasts, while management reset margin guidance to reflect planned increases in R&D and marketing spend to accelerate SaaS adoption.

He forecasts Adjusted EBITDA of $13.4-million on revenue of $176.5-million in fiscal 2025, improving to $16.9-million on $193.5-million of revenue in fiscal 2026.

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