Firefly Aerospace stock is a buy, this analyst says

Roth Capital Markets analyst Suji Desilva initiated coverage of Firefly Aerospace (Firefly Aerospace Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:FLY) on Sept. 9 with a “Buy” rating and US$ 60.00 price target, citing a differentiated space platform and strong positioning in the expanding national security and commercial space markets.

“FLY is targeting a large and rapidly growing space and national security market opportunity,” Desilva said. “Its integrated launch and spacecraft offerings provide an attractive platform for established aerospace, commercial, and government customers.”

He bases the target on roughly 20 times his calendar 2026 revenue forecast of US$430-million and 11 times his 2027 estimate of US$800-million, multiples that imply a discount to comparable Rocket Lab USA.

Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Texas, Firefly offers launch vehicles, lunar landers, and orbital transfer vehicles through facilities at its Cedar Park headquarters and Rocket Ranch test site. The company reached orbit on only its second Alpha rocket launch in 2022, has demonstrated 24-hour responsive launch, and achieved the first successful U.S. commercial lunar lander soft landing. Its portfolio includes the Alpha and Eclipse rockets, the Blue Ghost lunar lander and Elytra orbital transfer vehicle, targeting both commercial constellation deployments and national security applications.

Desilva highlighted a backlog approaching US$1.1-billion as of March 2025, up from US$750-million a year earlier. He said fulfilling multiple contract wins should drive higher mission cadence and profitability, while use of common composite and engine technologies offers operating leverage. In addition to launch and spacecraft sales, Firefly expects to generate recurring revenue from planned Ocula and Cortex services.

Market conditions remain favourable, with McKinsey projecting the global space economy to reach US$1.8-trillion by 2035, including growth in both commercial satellite constellations and defence budgets.

“We believe Firefly is positioned to benefit from these tailwinds as it scales its launch cadence and executes on upcoming lunar and orbital transfer missions,” Desilva said.

He acknowledged risks tied to execution, customer concentration, and government budget cycles, but argued valuation remains compelling. Rocket Lab currently trades at about 33 times 2026 revenue, while private SpaceX’s last reported valuation equated to roughly 26 times revenue.

“We are comfortable that our Firefly target multiple represents an appropriate discount to Rocket Lab and a gap the company can steadily close as it establishes a mission track record,” Desilva said.

He said he expects Firefly should do negative $191.2-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $137.8-million in fiscal 2025. He said those numbers will improve to negative $36.6-million on revenue of $430.4-million in fiscal 2026.

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