Is Docebo stock a buy?

National Bank of Canada Financial Markets analyst Richard Tse said Docebo (Docebo Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:DCBO) posted solid second-quarter 2025 results, with revenue of $60.7 million, slightly ahead of expectations, and adjusted EBITDA of $9.2 million. Both figures came in line with consensus and his own forecasts.

Docebo is a Canadian company that provides a cloud-based e-learning platform powered by artificial intelligence.

Tse said the company delivered “a clean quarter absent of one-offs,” which he viewed positively compared to prior quarters. However, he added that “given the recent history, we think it’s prudent to see some continued follow-through before this name sees a sustained re-rating.”

“At this point, we see a balanced risk-to-reward profile for Docebo,” he said. “While the essentially in-line results and outlook were positive, the lack of consistency of such results over the past year warrants continued consistent execution before a sustained valuation rerating. We’re maintaining our ‘Sector Perform’ rating and DCF-based target price of US$35, implying a valuation of 4.1 EV/Sales (was 4.2x) on our FY25E.”

Tse said Docebo’s guidance was largely in line with expectations. For Q3, the company is targeting revenue of $61.0–61.2-million (NBF: $60.1-million, consensus: $60.0-million) and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.0–19.5% (NBF: 19.9%, consensus: 18.7%). For FY25, Docebo raised its revenue growth forecast slightly to 10–11% from 9–10% (NBF: 9.6%, consensus: 9.5%) and maintained its adjusted EBITDA margin outlook at 17–18% (NBF: 17.8%, consensus: 17.4%).

“All in, the solid results/outlook are a turn following a challenging H1’25 that saw expectations reset (lower) due to macro,” Tse said. “And while that macro uncertainty is not entirely behind the company, given continuing remarks around deal scrutiny and extended sales cycles, it would appear the prior quarter’s assumptions for the year are looking conservative against the company’s expectations today. Further, we’d note this was a quarter that was absent of one-offs like customer losses, shifting customer profile focus, or management changes. Finally, Docebo should see benefits from its restructuring efforts begin to take hold in Q3.”

Tse said Docebo should do $43.2-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of $240.6-million in fiscal 2025. He thinks those numbers will improve to $53.0-million on revenue of $263.4-million in fiscal 2026.

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