Cematrix is still a buy, this analyst says

Cematrix (Cematrix Stock Quote, Chart, News Analysts, Financials TSXV:CEMX) announced another $5.1-million in contract wins on July 21, bringing its year-to-date total to $32-million.

In a same-day note, Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained a “Buy” rating and $0.45 target price on Cematrix, noting the new awards include a mix of highway, tank base, and void fill work. The company ended Q1 with an $80-million backlog and has since announced $20-million in new work, $15-million during Q2 and $5-million to begin Q3.

Calgary-headquartered Cematrix is a specialty construction contractor that produces cellular concrete solutions on-site.

Beacon noted a trend towards stronger revenue visibility. The company began work on another large contract late in Q2, setting it up for a strong second half of 2024, with a North Carolina project expected to contribute through the first half of 2026.

Stanley noted that work has recently begun on the $22-million North Carolina contract, which was originally announced over five years ago but faced multiple delays.

“Such pre-commencement delays are an unfortunate reality in this industry,” he said, “but once Cematrix begins work, delays are far less common.”

“These two major projects have been included in the backlog for some time, and with their commencement, we expect the company’s backlog to eventually normalize/moderate closer to ~1x sales over time.”

Shares of CEMX have nearly doubled since hitting a 52-week low in March. The stock currently trades at 5.1 times Beacon’s forecast for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA, a 45–46% discount to the 9.2–9.5 times average for cement producers and infrastructure firms. Upcoming catalysts could include Q2 results in August, new contract wins, and potential M&A activity.

Stanley projects Cematrix will post $6-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $51-million in revenue for fiscal 2025, rising to $9-million in EBITDA on $67-million in revenue in fiscal 2026.

“These new awards continue to demonstrate the confidence that our customers have in Cematrix’s sales and operations teams to deliver a quality solution to their geotechnical construction needs,” Randy Boomhour, President and CEO of Cematrix Corporation, said. “Our focus remains on providing value to our customers by consistently delivering a quality product, on time and on budget. Every successful project strengthens our reputation and makes the next sales process easier.”

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