Trubar wins price target raise at Clarus Securities

Clarus Securities analyst Noel Atkinson maintained a “Speculative Buy” rating on Trubar (Trubar Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSXV:TRBR) and raised the target to C$2.25 from C$1.75, citing strong sales momentum, expanding retail presence and a solid outlook into 2026.

Vancouver-based Trubar (formerly Simply Better Brands) is a growing consumer packaged goods company specializing in plant-based protein bars. It sells products directly to consumers online and through wholesale channels across North America.

In his May 30 note, Atkinson said that although Q1 fiscal 2025 revenue and gross margin were in line or slightly below expectations due to trade spending, he was encouraged by strong growth in direct-to-consumer and retail channels, the launch of new products like Kids and Mini bars, and solid sell-through at major retailers such as Target and Walmart.

“Walmart USA stores tend to sell out of TRUBAR fairly regularly and typically get restocked within a week,” he said. “This suggests to us that sales have been strong enough to keep the shelf space and provides us with optimism that a broader rollout will occur across the 4600-store chain over time. We have also seen a modest number of new Walmart USA stores stocked within our tracking regions, which is in line with management’s statements that about 100 additional Walmart USA stores have added TRUBAR since the initial launch in ~700 locations.

“Management remains focused on adding listings in more of the 4600 Walmart USA stores, but has been noticeably trying to set expectations that new store adds may occur in multiple phases rather than something like 3000+ stores all at once.”

Atkinson updated his valuation model to reflect 2026 estimates, maintaining a 2.25x EV/revenue multiple. While earnings estimates were slightly reduced, he raised the target price, citing TRUBAR’s progress toward a US$100-million run rate, broader shelf presence and increasing sales momentum.

Atkinson expects Trubar to break even on Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2025 on revenue of $68.9-million, down from his previous estimates of $1.5-million in EBITDA on $70.4-million in revenue. For fiscal 2026, he now forecasts $4.5-million in EBITDA on $90.0-million in revenue, compared to earlier estimates of $5.5-million on $94.0-million. The downward revisions reflect higher anticipated trade spending, which has pressured gross margins, and a more cautious near-term view on the pace of shelf expansion. Despite this, strong sell-through at major retailers and momentum from new product launches support a positive long-term outlook and a higher target price.

Atkinson said the valuation model is based entirely on TRUBAR’s protein product revenues and was updated to reflect 2026 as the new target year.

“Our target multiple remains 2.25x EV/revenue, now applied to our 2026 estimate (using a currency exchange rate of C$1.35/US$),” he said. “Our target multiple is modestly below the current 2.4x EV/2026e revenue multiple (using LSEG consensus estimates) of primary comp Simply Good Foods and basically in line with the 2.3x average of the broader peer group. We note that the consensus target prices for the peer group are equivalent to an average multiple of 3.2x EV/2026e revenues (ranging from 2.4x to 4.6x).

“However, we also consider that TRBR has smaller scale and lower Adj. EBITDA margins than the largest and most profitable peers. TRBR currently trades at just 0.9x EV/2026e revenue. Using a projected fully-diluted share count of 122.4MM shares as of 12/31/26e, our target valuation model outputs forecast equity value of C$2.15 per fully-diluted share. We are therefore raising our target price to C$2.25 per share (from C$1.75 previously).”

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