Roth chops price target on Plug Power

Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin lowered his price target for Plug Power (Plug Power Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:PLUG) to $3.50 from $5.00, citing reduced 2025 revenue expectations, now forecast at $700-million, down from a previous estimate of $900-million.

Founded in 1997 in Latham, New York, Plug Power makes fuel cell systems that power forklift trucks in warehouses and manufacturing sites, mainly in North America. Its fuel cell stacks come from Ballard Power, and its customers are typically high-volume, multi-shift operations.

Roth’s new target reflects this more conservative outlook, though Irwin still considers the valuation reasonable. While the outlook has been tempered, Irwin maintained a “Buy” rating, arguing that the current valuation remains fair. A 5x price-to-sales multiple is considered fair given the company’s successful generation of Green Hydrogen Production Tax Credits in Georgia and improving signs that gross margins will recover in the year’s second half.

“Plug successfully generated Green Hydrogen Production Tax Credits (PTC) at its Georgia plant, providing early evidence of monetization of PTC that supports FY25 margin inflection and valuation,” Irwin said in his May 13 earnings analysis.

Plug Power’s outlook is improving as gross margins are expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, supported by strong demand for its electrolyzer business in Europe.

“Electrolyzer business seeing strong demand in Europe. Mgmt noted PLUG has around \$200m in electrolyzer backlog for 2025 delivery and expects around 2GW of orders to reach FID by YE25. Mgmt is seeing strength across the EU as the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) calls for 42% of industrial hydrogen to be renewable by 2030 and 60% by 2035. Mgmt called out opportunities across Denmark, France, Spain, Portugal, and others.”

Irwin thinks that Plug Power will post and Adjusted EBITDA loss of $(350.0)-million on revenue of $700.0-million in fiscal 2025.

Irwin said that the U.S. tariffs remain a fluid situation, which Plug Power management addressed during its earnings call on May 12, citing higher costs on key products and materials such as GenDrive and battery modules.

“PLUG expects the situation to continue to evolve following President Trump’s recent announcements,” Irwin said. “Despite the potential impact of tariffs, mgmt noted most of its 2025 inventory has already been purchased, and PLUG announced plans to reduce China-related costs by 50% over the next six months.”

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