Will BlackBerry survive tariffs?

Following the company’s fourth quarter results, RBC analyst Paul Treiber has cut his price target on BlackBerry (BlackBerry Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:BB).

On April 2, BB reported its Q4 and fiscal 2024 results. In the fourth quarter, the company posted Adjusted EBITDA of $21.1-million on revenue of $141.7-million. The stock fell sharply following the results.

“BlackBerry closed out this transformational fiscal year with another quarter of strong financial performance from all three divisions: QNX, Secure Communications and Licensing. We also took a big step forward by completing the sale of the Cylance business to Arctic Wolf, a win-win for all parties, and significantly strengthening our balance sheet in the process,” CEO John J. Giamatteo said. “We started the year with a goal to deliver profitability and positive cash flow, and we’re pleased we delivered across the board. BlackBerry goes into the new fiscal year in a strong financial position, with a solid balance sheet that provides optionality for driving shareholder value.”

Treiber says elections and tariffs are potential headwinds for BlackBerry.

“Even though BlackBerry has not seen any meaningful impact from tariffs on QNX or production plans for its auto OEM customers to date, the company lowered its FY26 QNX revenue outlook from $260-270-million provided at its investor day in October to $250-270-milllion (10 per cent year-over-year Y/Y mid-point), with the mid-point slightly above consensus at $257-million,” he wrote. “QNX backlog rose only 6 per cent year-over-year (vs. 27 per cent Y/Y FY24), as several large expected program wins have not closed yet. Given uncertainties, new large wins may continue to be delayed through FY26.”

As reported by the Globe and Mail, Treiber April 3 maintained his “Sector Perform” rating on BlackBerry while cutting his price target from (US) $4.00 to $3.75.

“Our Sector Perform thesis reflects our view that a material upwards re-rating in the shares requires improved growth, which seems less likely at the moment,” he added.