IMAX could have a blockbuster year, this analyst says

IMAX (IMAX Corp Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:IMAX) is setting the stage for a blockbuster year, says Roth Capital analyst Eric Handler, who maintained his Buy rating and $32 price target, citing strong first-quarter results, a booming global box office outlook, and surging demand for premium large-format screens.

Handler said IMAX’s first-quarter results beat expectations and management reiterated its record-breaking global box office guidance of $1.2-billion for the year.

“Box office performance was aided by considerable strength from China where recent concerns about import restrictions are seen as overblown,” he said in his April 24 equity research. “Multiple big-budget Hollywood movies have been approved over the last three weeks,” he wrote, pointing to continued confidence in international performance.

“We like the upcoming Hollywood lineup (extending all the way into 2027) and the market share expansion potential with more movies filmed with IMAX cameras.”

Handler believes the company is poised for growth. IMAX beat expectations in the first quarter with revenue of $87-million and fully consolidated EBITDA of $37-million, exceeding both his and consensus forecasts.

The analyst noted the company’s record-breaking box office guidance of $1.2-billion for 2025, an increase of 30% year-over-year, and said the Hollywood release schedule through 2027 provides further support for sustained momentum.

“Comparisons on a y/y basis should prove the easiest in May with Thunderbolts, Final Destination: Bloodlines and Mission: Impossible: The Final Reckoning expected to easily outpace last year’s same-month releases for The Fall Guy, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Furiosa,” he said. “Last May saw IMAX take in an undersized $57mn, which was down 41% versus the same period in 2023. Market share in the quarter should be aided by six movies that were filmed for IMAX, including Sinners, Thunderbolts, Final Destination: Bloodlines, Mission: Impossible: The Final Reckoning, How to Train Your Dragon and F1.”

Handler thinks IMAX will generate $173.1-million in adjusted EBITDA on $408.8-million in revenue in fiscal 2025. He expects those numbers to improve to $188.4-million in adjusted EBITDA on $436.6-million in revenue in fiscal 2026.

The Roth analyst said IMAX has an expanding footprint, noting the company installed 21 systems in Q1 and signed 95 more, the highest number since early 2021. The company ended 1Q with 1,738 systems, up 2.5% from 1,697 a year ago, yet less than 50% of its addressable market.

“These signings helped boost the backlog to 516 systems, the highest number since (Q1 2021),” he said. “Increased focus has been placed on signings in markets with above-average revenue per screen, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Middle East and Western Europe.”

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