National Bank explains why Shopify is a “Top Pick” for 2025

After a meeting with the company, National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse remains bullish on Shopify (Shopify Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:SHOP).

Tse explained that he met some investors today with Shopify’s Director of Investor Relations, Carrie Gillard. The subject of discussion was the company’s opportunity in Enterprise, in Services -which he notes are still scaling- and the International markets, where he points out that 54% of new merchant wins are derived.

“Bottom line, everything we heard continues to line up with our existing investment thesis,” Tse wrote. “That thesis has been and continues to based on expectations for outsized growth from: 1) International; 2) increasing take rate across new services; 3) large enterprise; and 4) Offline / Point of Sale (POS), which we believe is not fully priced into the stock. Interestingly, we’d note the Company also believes its FCF margin targets in the high teens does not rein in its ability to invest in those growth initiatives. Shopify continues to be one of our Top Picks for 2025.”

In a research update to clients February 25, Tse maintained his “Outperform” and price target of (US) $140.00 on SHOP.

The analyst thinks SHOP will post Adjusted EBITDA of $2.02-billion on revenue of $10.8-billion in fiscal 2025. He expects those numbers will improve to Adjusted EBITDA of $2.35-billion on revenue of $12.9-billion in fiscal 2026.