Lightspeed Commerce price target slashed at National Bank

Following the company’s third quarter results, National Bank Financial analyst Richard Tse has cut his price target on Lightspeed Commerce (Lightspeed Commerce Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NYSE:LSPD).

On February 6, LSPD announced its Q3, 2025 results. The company posted Adjusted EBITDA of $16.6-million on revenue of $280.1-million, a topline that was 17%, year-over-year.

“We’ve continued to grow the Company since announcing the strategic review, having launched several new key initiatives which have already made a significant impact on our results – such as our software revenue growth of 9% year-over-year, the highest in the last nine quarters and raising our Adjusted EBITDA outlook for this fiscal year to over $53 million, more than 30% higher than the initial outlook of a minimum of $40 million at the start of the fiscal year,” CEO Dax Dasilva said. “We have begun a process of transformation that will reshape the Company, and I look forward to presenting the full details of the plan at our upcoming Capital Markets Day.”

Tse says never mind the numbers, there was an elephant in the room.

“By far the most notable item from the results was the announced conclusion of its strategic review that did not result in a sale of the Company. Instead, Lightspeed will move ahead on its organic growth strategy. At the same time, Lightspeed outlined a plan to repurchase up to $400 mln in stock, with ~$100 mln being executed immediately under its existing buyback program (both subject to market conditions). No doubt, the outcome of the strategic review likely raises questions as to why it did not conclude in a sale – most notable and obvious are a price (valuation) and product disconnect, the latter from the vantage point of prospects. The challenge for Lightspeed now will be executing on its growth plan in an increasingly competitive market when Lightspeed has also narrowed its TAM.”

In a research update to clients February 6, Tse maintained his “Sector Perform” rating but cut his price target on LSPD from $20.00 to $15.00.

The analyst thinks LSPD will post Adjusted EBITDA of $55.1-million on revenue of $1.09-billion in fiscal 2025. He expects Adjusted EBITDA of $78.0-million on a topline of $1.27-billion in fiscal 2026.