Blackbaud’s loss may be Sylogist’s gain, this analyst says

With a key competitor performing below expectations, Ventum Capital Markets analyst Amr Ezzat says the door may be opening for Sylogist (Sylogist Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:SYZ).

In a research update to clients February 18, the analyst summarized the development.

“Blackbaud reported Q4/24 results this morning, reinforcing our ongoing thesis on the company’s deteriorating positioning,” he wrote. “Since 2023, Blackbaud has aggressively pushed double-digit price increases and three-year contract lock-ins, a strategy we believed would accelerate customer dissatisfaction and churn. This morning’s results confirm that this thesis continues to play out as expected. This matters because Sylogist and Blackbaud directly compete in key software markets serving nonprofits, public sector organizations, and education providers. While Blackbaud dominates the space, its increasingly aggressive pricing strategy is creating a window for SYZ to capitalize on customer attrition.

In the report, Ezzat maintained his “Buy” rating and price target of $13.50 on SYZ, implying a return of 43% at the time of publication.

The analyst thinks the company will post EBITDA of $16.9-million on revenue of $66.4-million in fiscal 2024. He expects those numbers will grow to EBITDA of $18.9-million on a topline of $73.5-million in fiscal 2025.

“Blackbaud’s weak organic growth, continued customer attrition, and below-consensus 2025 guidance reinforce our thesis that its aggressive pricing strategy is driving churn, creating a structural market opportunity for Sylogist to capture share,” Ezzat concluded.