Antibe Therapeutics has more upside still, Paradigm says

The stock has been on a roll, but Paradigm Capital analyst Scott McAuley thinks there is still money to be made on Antibe Therapeutics (Antibe Therapeutics Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:ATE).

On February, 14 ATE reported its Q3, 2024 interim financial results. The pre-revenue company posted a net loss of $4.2-million and spent $2.3-million on R&D in the quarter.

“The results of November’s successful PK/PD study have empowered us to make considerable enhancements to the Phase II trial,” said CEO Dan Legault. “These upgrades may enable it to qualify as pivotal, potentially unlocking value by simplifying and shortening otenaproxesul’s remaining path to approval. Even with these enhancements, the trial remains on track to initiate next month – we’re looking forward to an exciting year.”

The analyst summed up the moment for ATE.

“After several fits and starts, including CMC delays, ATE is close to getting back to the clinic,” he noted. “This will be an important milestone as the first pain relief data for the new formulation and in the post-operative pain relief indication. The Phase 2 trial of otenaproxesul in abdominoplasty (tummy tuck) procedures is expected to be placebo controlled and include ~300 patients measuring sum of the pain intensity difference (SPID48), time to meaningful pain relief and others. The company expects to launch in March and provide top-line data in Q3/CY24. We expect more details will be released once the trial is launched and it is registered at clinicaltrials.gov.”

In a research update to clients February 27, McAuley maintained his “Speculative Buy” rating and price target of $1.50 on Antibe, implying a return of 52 per cent at the time of publication.

The analyst thinks ATE will post an EBITDA loss of $21.2-million in fiscal 2024. He expects that loss will grow to $29.7-million the following year.

“ATE has gained +120% since mid-October when the safety data from the new formulation did not show any liver toxicity, McAuley added. “However, we could see pressure until the end of March while it is running a warrant exercise incentive program and expect the Nuance arbitration will continue to be an overhang. We value ATE on our rNPV for otenaproxesul and maintain our Speculative Buy recommendation and $1.50 target.”