Dialogue Health has a 79 per cent upside, Desjardins says

Desjardins Capital Markets analyst Jerome Dubreuil says there are lots of positives to the new deal just announced by Canadian virtual health and wellness company Dialogue Health Technologies (Dialogue Health Technologies Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CARE). Dubreuil reviewed the details in a Thursday report where he reiterated a “Buy” rating on the stock, saying Dialogue is now expanding into new and higher-margin areas. 

Montreal-based Dialogue Health announced on Thursday an agreement with Sun Life US to license Dialogue’s healthcare and wellness platform and to distribute its services to members of Sun Life’s US Health and Risk Solutions business. 

“We are very excited to partner with Sun Life U.S. to help support their members and drive positive health outcomes,” said Cherif Habib, Dialogue CEO, in a press release. “This agreement also represents a significant milestone in Dialogue’s growth strategy, providing exposure outside our home market of Canada.”

Dialogue, which already has Sun Life as a major shareholder, said it will initially deploy its platform with about 600,000 Sun Life members, with options to expand the program in the future. 

Because of Sun Life’s size and the option to expand the program going forward, Dubreuil said the agreement is material to CARE’s business and has the potential to increase consolidated revenue by the low-to-mid single-digit percentage points next year.

“This agreement paves the way for additional agreements outside of CARE’s primary market of Canada, which is occurring faster than we were anticipating. We believe the relationship with Sun Life could further assist CARE’s geographic expansion, as Sun Life could also be interested in making CARE’s platform available to members in other regions,” Dubreuil wrote.

It’s also a higher-margin deal, Dubreuil argued, as it comes with limited additional costs for CARE, resulting in “SaaS-like” gross margins.

“We understand the platform will initially be focused on wellness services, with the possibility of adding services over time. The deal is another step toward reducing exposure to primary care (which has lower operational leverage) and focusing on high-margin SaaS business, which should warrant a higher multiple over time,” he said.

Shares of CARE have fallen significantly since the company IPO’d in early 2021, going from about $16 at the start to now in the $2-$4 range. 

But Dubreuil sees better days ahead. With his “Buy” rating, the analyst maintained a 12-month target on CARE of $5.25 per share, which at press time represented a projected return of 79 per cent.