Docebo is heading back to $90, says ATB

ATB Capital Markets analyst Martin Toner likes the latest quarterly results from learning management platform Docebo (Docebo Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:DCBO). Toner published a report on the company on Thursday where he reiterated an “Outperform” rating on the stock, saying profitability looks good on DCBO.

Toronto-based Docebo, an artificial intelligence-powered learning platform provider, announced its fourth quarter and full year financials on Thursday, coming in with revenue up 31 per cent year-over-year to $39.0 million and gross profit up 33 per cent to $31.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA was at $2.3 million compared to negative $1.5 million a year earlier, while cash flow from operations was $2.2 million compared to neutral cash flows a year ago. (All figures in US dollars except where noted otherwise.)

“Docebo delivered strong performance in spite of the macroeconomic headwinds in 2022 as both new and existing customers are realizing measurable value from deploying our solution across external and internal use cases. Our focus remains on driving long-term growth and profitability across economic cycles, supported by continued innovation,” said Claudio Erba, Founder and CEO, in a press release.

Toner said the $39.0 million topline was a bit above his estimate at $38.0 million as well as the consensus call at $38.6 million, while adjusted EBITDA at $2.3 million was a beat of his forecast at $1.5 million and the Street at $1.2 million.

Toner said Docebo’s Q4 annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $157.1 million was up 34.2 per cent year-over-year and represented a 12.5 million sequential increase, while he also noted that management provided guidance for the first time, with expected Q1 2023 revenue of $41.3-$41.6 million, which was slightly below the consensus figure of $41.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of four to five per cent which would imply EBITDA of $1.7-$2.1 million, which is in-line with the consensus estimate at $1.7 million.

“Docebo continues to show its ability to grow its revenue while controlling costs and turning profitable, and we expect investors to react positively to today’s results,” he said.

Docebo shares finished trading on Thursday up almost two per cent to C$50.78 per share. The stock is well off its C$117 high hit in September, 2021, while over the past few months it has risen from $40 to now around $50.

With his update, Toner reiterated a 12-month target price of C$90, which at the time of publication was good for a projected one-year return of 84.0 per cent.