Don’t sell your Profound Medical stock, says Raymond James

Shareholders would be forgiven for wanting to take some profits on Profound Medical Corp (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Charts, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:PROF), a stock which has returned an incredible 250 per cent since early November, but hold on, says Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser, who continues to have a strong conviction in the company and stock.

Sarugaser reiterated a “Strong Buy” rating on PROF in a Thursday update while also maintaining Profound Medical as his “Analyst Current Favourite” and “2023 Analyst Best Pick.”

Profound Medical is in the process of commercializing its TULSA-PRO therapeutic technology in the US for the ablation of pathologic prostate tissue. The stock, which hit a high of $28 in early 2021, had been on a downward slope for the rest of 2021 and much of 2022 before starting a turnaround at $3 and change this past October. Since then, PROF has risen to the low-$11 range where it’s been trading for much of the new year. (All figures in US dollars.)

In defence of his position, Sarugaser reminded readers that even with the monumental gains, PROF is still well below its peak, and while acknowledging that macro differences surely exist between early 2021 and today, the analyst pointed to the advances Profound has made over the past two years. For one, Profound had only about 15 TULSA-PRO installations by January 2021 versus 35 today, with many at “a who’s who of teaching hospitals,” Sarugaser said. The company also delivered four-year data showing safety outcomes for its tech that are “far superior” to surgical radical prostatectomy, while Profound has also de-risked its application for the valued Category-1 CPT reimbursement.

“And so, while investors may be considering taking profits now, we would see this move as near-sighted, forfeiting the return they could instead capture over the next 24 months,” Sarugaser wrote.

By the end of 2024, the analyst said he expects Profound to have three more critical pieces in place: an installed base of about 75 TULSA devices, an approval for its Category-1 CPT code (expected at the AMA’s May or September 2023 meeting) and completion of recruitment in Profound’s CAPTAIN Trial, with interim data rolling out by 2024.

By the numbers, Sarugaser is calling for full 2022 revenue and EBITDA of $8 million and negative $25 million, respectively, and for 2023 revenue and EBITDA of $11 million and negative $26 million, respectively. The analyst sees PROF’s EV/Revenue going from 20.5x for 2021 to 18.7x for 2022 and to 13.4x for 2023’s numbers.

With his “Strong Buy”, Sarugaser reiterated a $15.00 target price, which at press time represented a projected one-year return of 36 per cent.