The sky’s the limit for Profound Medical, says Raymond James

The path is looking clearer for Profound Medical’s (Profound Medical Stock Quote, Chart, News TSX:PRN) revenue ramp, says Raymond James analyst Rahul Sarugaser, who revised his forecast and upped his target for PRN in an update to clients on Thursday.

Medical device company Profound Medical is commercializing its novel non-invasive, image-guided therapeutic technology, the TULSA-PRO, for the ablation of prostate tissue. Last year, the TULSA-PRO was given 510(k) marketing authorization by the US Food and Drug Administration, with the company now carrying out marketing efforts across the US.

Last week, Profound announced the closing of an offering of 3.2 million common shares at a price of US$14.50 per share for proceeds of about US$46 million. Management said the proceeds will go towards funding the commercial launch of the TULSA-PRO and continued development and commercialization of both TULSA-PRO and medical device SONALLEVE globally, along with working capital and general corporate purposes.

In his update, Sarugaser wrote that with more than $100 million on its balance sheet, Profound’s ability to launch the TULSA-PRO is materially de-risked.

“With the recent launch of its first sale to a teaching hospital (the Mayo Clinic in FL)—third operational treatment site, fourth deal signed, sixth device sold—this indicated to us that PRN's commercialization machine is back up and running earlier than we had expected,” Sarugaser wrote.

“As such, we have accelerated anticipated TULSA installations in our model, driving an estimated installed base of 15 by end of 2020, and 40 by end of 2021. At the same time, we have moderated our estimates for the average number of patients treated per TULSA-PRO site, particularly as new sites still learning the procedure will likely slow the average ramp rate: 60 pts/ site in 2020; 66 pts/site in 2021,” he added.

The analyst said PRN is forecasting PRN’s revenue to go from $10 million in 2020 to $28 million in 2021 and to $55.7 million by 2022. But that scenario would change, Sarugaser said, depending on PRN’s receipt of a C-code for the TULSA-PRO by the fourth quarter of 2020 (Sarugaser’s prediction), then, with a two-quarter buffer for hospitals to adopt the C-code, Sarugaser sees Profound accelerating its installation by 30 per cent and its average utilization rates should be doubling. By that logic, potential revenues could climb to $34.7 million in 2021 and $112.3 million in 2022 due to strong recurring revenue from its installed base. (All figures in Canadian dollars unless where noted otherwise.)

With the update, Sarugaser retained his “Strong Buy” rating and “Analyst Current Favourite” status for PRN, while upping his target from $38.00 to $43.00 on the back of the de-risked revenue ramp.

Sarugaser ended his report by saying the receipt of its C-Code in 2021 and CPT-code in 2023 would significantly rerate the stock, going, potentially to $76 per share by 2022, $443 by 2023 and $443 by 2024. “Crazy: yes. Improbably: no,” said Sarugaser.