Cansortium keeps “Buy” rating at Paradigm, has price target chopped

After hitting the reset button late last year, US cannabis operation Cansortium (Cansortium Stck Quote, Chart, News CSE:TIUM.U) is ready to reverse its recent underperformance, says Corey Hammill, senior analyst with Paradigm Capital.

Hammill delivered an update to clients on the company Tuesday in which he reiterated his “Buy” rating with the reduced target of C$1.00 (previously C$1.50).

Miami, Florida-based Cansortium is a medical cannabis company with vertically integrated cultivation, processing, formulation and sales of cannabis through its patient platform. Aside from the company’s business in Florida, TIUM has operations in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas.

With its stock in free-fall last year (along with the rest of the cannabis sector), Cansortium made significant moves late in 2019 to sell some of its assets as part of a reorganization, losing non-core assets in Canada and Puerto Rico to free up capital and reduce operating costs.

The shift to narrow its focus on core operations came with management changes, as well, including the splitting up of CEO and Chairman roles and leaving Jose Hidalgo on as CEO.

Ahead of Cansortium’s fourth quarter financials expected by the end of the month, Hammill has revised his forecasts to reflect the company’s change in focus and cost-saving measures along with the potential economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TIUM’s business.

The analyst is still calling for sequential Q4 revenue growth of about 50 per cent, with an expected loss of about $1 for every $1 generated.

But Hammill thinks TIUM should see continued balance sheet improvement going forward, even as he sees challenges still ahead for the company. (All figures in US dollars except where noted otherwise.)

“Over the course of the last few months TIUM has made tough, yet necessary decisions to salvage its balance sheet, which now allows it to focus on the tremendous opportunities it has in four targeted state markets,” Hammill said.

“Despite the future upside and its improving fundamentals, Cansortium continues to underperform relative to its Florida peers, down 42 per cent YTD, compared to the price-weighted group average of down 24 per cent,” he said.

Looking at Cansortium’s various jurisdictions, Hammill said he expects Florida to remain its number one focus where it will look to capture a greater market share (it currently operates the fifth-most locations and ranks sixth in terms of total product sold). In Pennsylvania, TIUM is pursuing its option to open two more dispensaries (to make three altogether), while in Michigan management is still deciding whether to use its license to open its own dispensaries or continue to operate exclusively as a cultivator and wholesaler, Hammill said.

As for Texas, the analyst reported that TIUM is still not yet seeing revenue or cash flow, although it has one of just three licenses in the state.

“TIUM remains one of the most affordable names in our MSO tracking basket, trading at just ~1.5x consensus 2020e sales. In the near term, Cansortium still must re-negotiate a $10M debenture coming due in August,” Hammill said.

For the Q4, Hammill is now calling for revenue of $11 million and $30 million for the full year, with 2019 EBIT working out to a loss of $31.7 million. At press time, the analyst’s C$1.00 target represented a projected return of 317 per cent.