Vivo Cannabis has a 141 per cent upside, says PI Financial

PI Financial analyst Jason Zandberg is pulling back the reins while still remaining positive about Vivo Cannabis (Vivo Cannabis Stock Quote, Chart TSXV:VIVO).

On Tuesday, Zandberg published an update on Vivo which reiterated his “Buy” rating but with the reduced target of $2.00 (previously $2.50).

Napanee, Ontario’s Vivo Cannabis reported its fourth quarter and year ended December 2018 financials on Tuesday, coming in with net revenue for the year of $9.7 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17.8 million. The company ended 2018 with cash and short-term investments excluding equity investments of $74.8 million.

For the quarter, Zandberg says the $5.8-million in revenue, although up 156 per cent from the previous quarter, was below his estimate of $10.1 million. EBITDA of negative $7.3 million compared to last year’s Q4 loss of $8.0 million, while EPS for the quarter was negative $0.02 compared to $0.07 a year earlier.

“VIVO revenues were less that we modelled but there were a few bright spots; Canna Farms, the Hope, BC based company that VIVO acquired in 2018, contributed the majority of the revenue for the quarter and the balance sheet shows a huge cash and short-term investments balance of $74.8 million,” says Zandberg.

Zandberg notes a few of the company’s successes over the year, including maintaining its 18,000-person active patient list from both Canna Farms and Beacon Medical, receiving Health Canada approval for the expansion of facilities at Hope, BC, and Napanee, and international expansion through its German and Australian subsidiaries.

The analyst has lowered his estimates for fiscal 2019 and 2020, calling for revenue of $29.9 million and $62.5 million, respectively (previously $32.8 million and $81.0 million) and EBITDA of negative $20.1 million and negative $2.1 million, respectively (previously $2.4 million and $24.8 million). Zandberg is now introducing 2021 estimates of a $104.6-million top line and $20.6 million in EBITDA.

Zandberg’s $2.00 target represented a 12-month return on investment of 140.9 per cent at the time of publication.