Quantum International has 108% upside, Paradigm Capital says

Ahead of the company’s first quarter results, Paradigm Capital analyst Kevin Krishnaratne says Quantum International Income Corp. (TSXV:QIC) offers a potentially big reward for investors.

In a research update to clients today, Krishnaratne maintained his “Buy” rating an one-year price target of $2.25 on QIC, implying a return of 108.3 per cent at the time of publication.

The analyst says QIC, which owns a 51 per cent stake in Lucky Bucks, a company that draws approximately $70-million in annual revenue from coin-operated gaming machines in the United States, is looking cheap.

“QIC shares are currently trading at a +50% discount to other comparable gaming peers in the 9.0–10.0x range,” Krishnaratne explains. “We note that this discount is even greater when comparing to target multiples for peers in the 11.0–12.0x range. We continue to suggest investors should buy shares ahead of anticipated M&A, which likely serves as the next largest catalyst for the stock over the coming months.”

The Paradigm analyst outlined what he expects from the upcoming quarter.

“We forecast gross revenue of $17.8M, which we think QIC can handily beat, with upside driven by higher player activity typically observed during the seasonally strong tax season (March–April), along with the company’s focus on optimizing revenue per machine. We expect these two areas should help produce a strong top-line beat and drive better-than-forecast EBITDA given the high operating leverage in the model. Our estimates suggest QIC EBITDA of $7.6M.”

Krishnaratne thinks QIC will generate Adjusted EBITDA of $29.0-million on revenue of $70.7-million in fiscal 2019. He expects those numbers will improve to EBITDA of $32.2-million on a topline of $77.6-million the following year.