Invictus MD has a 125 per cent upside, Echelon Wealth says

A new export deal for licensed cannabis producer Invictus MD Strategies Corp (TSXV:GENE) gets the approval of Echelon Wealth Partners analyst Russell Stanley, who says that at a 61 per cent discount to its closest peers, Invictus is a “Speculative Buy.”

On Tuesday, Invictus announced that it had signed a non-binding letter of intent (LOI) to sell cannabis to a German importer and distributor of medical cannabis, with a year one volume commitment of 1,000 kg of dried cannabis at $6.50 per gram, for an annualized revenue of $6.5 million.

The company says it will first be required to obtain an export permit from Health Canada as well as a Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) certification from the European Union.

“We continue to explore opportunities for sales and distribution beyond our nation’s borders to countries, like Germany, that welcome legalized medical cannabis products,” said Dan Kriznic, Invictus Founder and CEO, in a statement. “These new relationships will diversify our operations and further allow us to become Canada’s Cannabis Company, and beyond.”

Stanley says that he expects further detail with respect to the import partner once a definitive agreement is reached but he nonetheless views Invictus’ potential for international sales expansion favourably.

“GENE trades at just 5.2x our F2020E EBITDA (GENE has a January 31st FYE, so we view its F2020 as fundamentally equivalent to C2019), representing a 68 per cent discount to the broad peer group average at 16.0x EV/C2019 EBITDA, and a 61 per cent discount to its closest peers at 13.3x,” says the analyst in a Tuesday update to clients. “Given the milestones accomplished in the past month, including the receipt of a sales license for its Acreage Pharms facility in May, we view GENE as very attractively priced at current levels.”

Stanley says that upcoming potential catalysts for Invictus include expansion updates, product development news, retail license updates and improved financial results.

His estimates have GENE producing revenue and Adj. EBITDA in 2018 of $2.2 million and negative $9.9 million, respectively, and revenue and Adj. EBITDA in 2019 of $22.4 million and $5.4 million, respectively.

Stanley’s reiterates his “Speculative Buy” and 12-month target price of $3.60, which represents a projected return of 125 per cent at the time of publication.