Avigilon could see another bidder top Motorola’s offer: Haywood

Not so fast.

That’s the take from Haywood Securities analyst Pardeep Sangha, who says the deal Motorola has made to buy Vancouver-based security player Avigilon (TSX:AVO) is too low. As a result, the analyst thinks another bidder could emerge.

On Thursday, Motorola Solutions announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Avigilon in an all-cash transaction worth approximately $1-billion (U.S.), including Avigilon’s net debt, or $27.00 a share.

“We’re very pleased to be joining Motorola Solutions as their vision and strategy aligns fully with our own,” said Avigilon CEO Alexander Fernandes. “This combination will bring new opportunities to Avigilon, allowing us to accelerate our innovation and provide even more value to our customers.”

Sangha says he thinks the offer undervalues Avigilon.

“The take-out bid is only 18% higher than the recent closing price of $22.82,” he says. “This transaction values the Company at approximately 9.5x EV/EBITDA of our CY18 estimate; while historical transactions in the industry have averaged almost 14x EV/EBITDA. We believe Motorola’s bid undervalues Avigilon, whose peer group is currently trading at 11.3x EV/EBITDA of consensus CY18 estimates. This transaction has the unanimous support of Avigilon’s full Board, and approximately 12% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the Company have agreed to support the transaction. We feel this is a very low approval percentage for such a transaction.”

The analyst says he could see a better deal coming from one of several companies.

Other potential acquirers include: Cannon Inc., Bosch, Panasonic, FLIR, Johnson Controls, or Honeywell. In addition, Avigilon could also receive interest from Chinese companies such as Hikvision and Zhejiang Dahua.

In a research update to clients today, Sangha maintained his “Buy” rating Avigilon, but raised his one-year price target from $27.00 to $30.00. Shares of Avigilon closed Friday up 18.3 per cent to $27.00.