Shopify is still undervalued, says Paradigm Capital

Ahead of what is expected to be a busy online holiday shopping season, Paradigm Capital analyst Kevin Krishnaratne is feeling bullish about Shopify (Shopify Stock Quote, Chart, News: TSX:SH, NYSE:SHOP).

In a research update to clients today, Krishnaratne maintained his “Buy” rating on Shopify, but raised his one-year price target on the stock from (U.S) $42 to $50, implying a return of 22 per cent at the time of publication.

Krishnaratne says his bullish take on the company’s prospects reflects an upcoming busy online shopping season and upcoming initiatives with partners such as Facebook and Amazon, but says his new target price is a result of looking a little further out.

“While we have not made any material changes to our estimates, we are rolling forward our valuation by six months to a straddling of 2017/2018 estimates,” says the analyst. “Our new $50.00 target (was $42.00) reflects an EV/Sales multiple on 2017/2018 estimates of ~7.0x and an EV/Gross Profit multiple of ~14.0x. On an EV/Gross Profit basis, Shopify is trading at a premium of ~25% to recent takeouts in the E-Commerce space (Demandware and NetSuite), but we think that a premium is justified given our expectations of gross profit growth of at least +40% in 2017 versus peers in the 20–30% range.”

Krishnaratne expects Shopify’s upcoming third quarter results will be another strong one, with revenue rising more than 82 per cent to $95.9-million.

The analyst thinks Shopify’s revenue will grow to $371.27-million in fiscal 2016 and improve to $541.51-million the following year.