Mood Media showing "positive undercurrents", says Euro Pacific Canada

Slowly but surely, Mood Media’s (Mood Media Stock Quote, Chart, News: TSX:MM) turnaround is showing signs that a viable company will eventually emerge, says Euro Pacific Canada analyst Rob Goff.

On March 10, Mood Media reported its fourth quarter and fiscal 2015 results. In the fourth quarter, the company posted EBITDA of $24-million on revenue of $125-million. The company lost $0.22 a share.

“The two years of transformation activity at Mood are showing positive gains, as evidenced by higher underlying revenues, stabilized EBITDA and improved free cash flow in 2015,” said CEO Steve Richards. “We have materially arrested the declines experienced by the business in 2012 and 2013, achieving positive momentum in many key financial and operational metrics. In 2015, Mood underlying revenues grew 3.1 per cent over 2014, marking the first time Mood achieved revenue growth as a company with its present collection of assets. With a significantly improved operational foundation, we are now accelerating Mood’s sales and business development activities in 2016, with incremental investments in talent and solutions to benefit Mood in 2016 and beyond.”

Goff notes that the Mood Media’s Q4 topline bested his expectation of $119.8-million, but the EPS number of -$0.22 fell below his than expectation of an $0.08 loss. Still, the analyst says he sees the company deleveraging going forward and perhaps engaging in some M&A.

“The quarter provided positive undercurrents that we expect to surface over the next 6-12 months with increasing revenue traction as y/y customer growth resumes and high margin recurring revenue turns positive,” says Goff. “An improving top line layered against further efficiency gains support building EBITDA growth where we have 2016/17 EBITDA ahead 0.2%/3.9% driving FCF of $8.2M/$16.6M or $0.04/$0.09 per share to start the deleveraging process as the Company as 2015 net debt:EBITDA declines from 6.1x for 2015 to 5.5x against 2017. We see the potential for strategic partnerships to strengthen distribution and content capabilities and in turn enhance shareholder returns. Looking further ahead, we remain optimistic that with further evidence of its turnaround and more attractive currency the Company can consider the potential to purchase affiliates.”

In a research update to clients today, Goff maintained his “Speculative Buy” rating and one-year price target of $0.30 on Mood Media, implying a return of 300 per cent at the time of publication.