Curaleaf Holdings. Buy, Sell or Hold?

Beacon Securities analyst Russell Stanley maintained a “Buy” rating and C$5.00 price target on Curaleaf Holdings (Curaleaf Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CURA) after the company announced what he described as a landmark refinancing for the U.S. cannabis sector.

In a Feb. 9 note, Stanley said Curaleaf has secured commitments for a US$500-million private placement of 11.5%senior secured notes with a three-year maturity to February 2029, the largest debt offering completed by a U.S. cannabis operator to date. Proceeds are expected to refinance Curaleaf’s remaining US$457-million of senior secured notes due December 2026, with the transaction slated to close on or about Feb. 18.

Management described the offering as “meaningfully oversubscribed,” featuring commitments from 10 first-time cannabis investors alongside existing lenders.

Stanley said that the new maturity comes seven to 20 months earlier than those achieved by other major MSOs that have recently refinanced, while still extending Curaleaf’s debt runway. The terms also allow for incremental issuance subject to leverage covenants, as well as up to US$100-million in senior bank financing.

“All else equal, meaningful progress on cannabis reform — rescheduling in particular — should set up a more attractive refinancing environment,” Stanley said, adding that participation from new investors is “an encouraging indicator of investor appetite.”

Stanley also previewed Curaleaf’s fourth-quarter results, due after market close on Feb. 26. The company has already reported preliminary fourth-quarter revenue of at least US$330-million, above Beacon’s prior estimate of US$324-million and Street consensus of US$326-million. Preliminary adjusted gross margins of 48.5% were slightly below Beacon’s estimate, though Stanley left his Adjusted EBITDA forecast unchanged at US$65-million, versus consensus of US$66-million. He also expects fourth-quarter operating cash flow of US$29-million, bringing full-year 2025 operating cash flow to approximately US$133-million.

At the valuation level, Stanley said Curaleaf continues to warrant a premium multiple. The shares trade at 9.5 times his fiscal 2026 Adjusted EBITDA forecast, an 82% premium to the peer group average, which he attributed to Curaleaf’s broader investor base supported by its TSX listing and TSX Composite inclusion. Near-term catalysts include closing of the refinancing, fourth-quarter results, and potential M&A activity.

Stanley said Curaleaf should generate US$262-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$1.28-billion in fiscal 2025, improving to US$332-million in Adjusted EBITDA on revenue of US$1.39-billion in fiscal 2026.

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