Is Plug Power still a buy?

In a Nov. 10 earnings preview, Roth Capital Markets analyst Craig Irwin maintained his “Buy” rating and US$3.50 target price on Plug Power (Plug Power Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials NASDAQ:PLUG), citing margin improvement efforts, asset monetization plans, and new project momentum as near-term positives.

Headquartered in Latham, N.Y., Plug Power designs and manufactures hydrogen fuel cell systems primarily for forklift trucks used in large-scale manufacturing and distribution facilities across North America.

Irwin said Roth recently hosted a management dinner with outgoing CEO Andy Marsh, incoming CEO Jose Luis Crespo, and Alfred Benedict of Allied Green Ammonia (AGA). A key takeaway, he said, was that the Offshore and Battery Bill (OBBB) had “eliminated contradictory language related to FC forklift funding,” which could lead to a rebound in that business line. He added that margin remediation efforts appeared to be yielding substantial results.

Irwin noted that AGA now has three multi-gigawatt electrolyzer projects “all with good funding visibility,” supporting possible bookings in mid-2026. He said Plug Power is also looking to monetize its Texas and New York power purchase agreements (PPAs) and related infrastructure from earlier green hydrogen developments, which could generate more than US$275-million in cash.

Plug Power has signed a non-binding letter of intent to sell its electricity rights in New York and one other location to a U.S. data-center developer, and will work with that partner to provide auxiliary and backup power systems. The company also intends to suspend activities related to the U.S. Department of Energy loan program and reallocate capital to higher-return opportunities.

For the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Roth expects Plug Power to report revenue of US$195.0-million, an Adjusted EBITDA loss of US$106.8-million, and a per-share loss of US$0.14, compared with consensus estimates of US$176.3-million, US$94.7-million, and US$0.12, respectively. The firm projects a gross margin of –30.0%, better than consensus at –40.7% and a marked improvement from –57.6% in the same quarter a year earlier.

Irwin’s model assumes fiscal 2025 revenue of US$733.9-million and an Adjusted EBITDA loss of US$400.0-million, improving to US$850.0-million and US$215.0-million respectively in fiscal 2026.

Roth expects Plug Power to guide toward a strong fourth quarter and sees its valuation as supported by a 5x multiple on 2025 revenue estimates. Irwin said that multiple is justified by progress on green-hydrogen tax credits, margin improvement through the second half of 2025, and improved visibility into new project bookings.

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