Curaleaf Holdings is still undervalued, this analyst says

Curaleaf Holdings (Curaleaf Holdings Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:CURA) reported Q2 results that were largely in line with expectations, according to Haywood Capital Markets analyst Neal Gilmer in an August 7 note.

Revenue for the quarter came in at $314.5-million, up 1.5% sequentially but down 8.1% year over year. The figure was roughly in line with Gilmer’s forecast of $313.3-million and consensus at $313.9-million. Adjusted gross margins improved from Q1 to 48.8%, close to Gilmer’s estimate of 49.0%. Adjusted EBITDA was $65.5-million, or a 20.8% margin, also matching his expectations. Curaleaf generated $9-million in operating cash flow during the quarter, with $15-million in capital expenditures. The company ended the period with $102.3-million in cash and $561.0-million in net debt.

“Curaleaf reported Q2 results that were broadly in-line with expectations,” Gilmer said. “Growth across international markets and Ohio was offset by price compression in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Illinois.”

Gilmer said he has updated his forecasts for Curaleaf following the company’s Q2 results and conference call. He lowered his estimates for the second half of 2025 based on the company’s Q3 guidance and more modest growth expectations for Q4 due to macroeconomic uncertainty. As a result, his 2026 estimates have also been slightly reduced to reflect the lower starting point.

“We reiterate our Buy recommendation based on our long-term outlook and maintain our target price of $4.50 based on 11x our 2026 EBITDA estimate discounted at 15%,” he said.

He said Curaleaf remains well-positioned in the cannabis sector, highlighting its broad U.S. state footprint and exposure to international markets as key strengths.

“Despite the near-term challenges in the equity markets, we remain bullish on our long-term outlook,” he said. “The company has numerous growth opportunities, both international and adult-use sales in Maryland, Connecticut, and Ohio in the near term. Curaleaf also maintains an existing footprint in states that may launch adult-use cannabis sales over the next few years, such as Pennsylvania.”

Neal Gilmer said Curaleaf’s management guided for Q3/25 revenues to be flat to slightly higher, citing ongoing macroeconomic challenges and pricing pressure as sources of uncertainty. The company maintained its full-year CAPEX outlook at approximately $50-million, with spending directed toward international growth, IT systems, and new store openings.

Curaleaf is projected to generate $270.9-million in Adjusted EBITDA on $1.27 billion in revenue this year, according to analyst Neal Gilmer. He expects both figures to improve in 2026, with EBITDA reaching $317.2-million on revenue of $1.33 billion.

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