When will BCE cut its dividend?

For National Bank analyst Adam Shine it’s not a matter of if, but when.

The subject at hand is BCE‘s (BCE Stock Quote, Chart, News, Analysts, Financials TSX:BCE) dividend, which has become something of a hot topic since the telco axed its dividend reinvestment program.

“Talk persists on when, not if, BCE will cut its dividend,” the analyst wrote. “Some thought this might happen last month with 4Q24 reporting and 2025 guidance, but that was premature after it was signaled in early November that the dividend would be stable in 2025. There are those that believe the cut will come with 1Q25 reporting. This seems close to 4Q24 and not so far removed from November. What would the excuse be for the board? Could the trigger be closing the MLSE sale (possibly this summer) or better still the Ziply buy (expected in fall)? Will the cut come in period of announcement, or could it come with 2Q or 3Q reporting as a telegraphing of what the dividend will be in 2026?

Shine offered up his opinion on the timing.

“We think the cut comes with or before 4Q25 reporting, with earliest announcement more likely in 2H than 1H,” he said. “As to size of cut, a pruning of 25 per cent seems half-baked, while a 50-per-cent contraction appears more prudent as it would return the dividend yield closer to historical levels, eliminate follow-on talk of more cutting, and position dividend for renewed growth ahead. We’d expect the new 2-per-cent DRIP discount to be eliminated at the same time as a 50-per-cent dividend cut.”

As reported by The Globe and Mail, Shine March 11 maintained his “Sector Perform” rating and raised his price target from $35.00 to $36.00.