AI and analytics company mCloud Technologies (mCloud Technologies Stock Quote, Chart, News TSXV:MCLD) is gaining momentum and poised to accelerate in 2020, says Kevin Krishnaratne, analyst for Paradigm Capital, who reviewed mCloud’s recently released third quarter results in an earnings update to clients on Friday.
The analyst kept his “Buy” rating but boosted his 12-month target from $0.75 to $0.80 per share, saying the company has aligned itself well with global energy management trends.
Vancouver-based mCloud has asset management SaaS solutions using Artificial Intelligence, analytics and IoT sensors to address needs in three energy-related segments: smart facilities, power generation and process industries including oil and gas.
Reporting its quarterly results on Thursday, mCloud management says that the company experienced strong and persistent organic growth in recurring revenues across all business segments, with the company on track to exceed over 40,000 connected assets by the year’s end. The company reported Q3 revenue of $9.2 million and an EBITDA loss of $6.9 million.
“The bottom line is that our AssetCare platform is now the primary driver for mCloud’s growth through the rapid addition of new customers, connected assets, and recurring revenues,” said Russ McMeekin, president and CEO, in a press release. “The high-performance technologies and domain expertise that we have acquired, our aggressive market entry into process industries such as oil and gas, and our international expansion plans in Continental Europe, Southeast Asia, and soon the Middle East, are quickly growing our reach globally.”
Krishnaratne says the $9.2-million top line was below his estimate of $10.1 million but that growth of 36 per cent quarter-on-quarter in its core AssetCare business (up to $4.1 million from $3.0 million in Q2) was a notable improvement.
Management’s guidance for the upcoming quarter came in a little under the analyst’s call at between $13 and $15 million versus Krishnaratne’s expected $16.5 million. Over the longer term, the analyst likes the look of 2020, where management is guiding for $70 to $80 million in revenue, driven by a 75-per-cent year-over-year increase in connected assets (projected to hit more than 70,000 in 2020).
“We think mCloud is well aligned with global energy management trends that are driving businesses to adopt technologies to lower electricity costs, extend the life of energy equipment, maximize energy production, and increase the intelligence of legacy energy systems. mCloud’s competitive data and analytics edge, coupled with management’s energy industry experience, should help it add new clients to an already impressive base, while we see pricing power and new asset connections leading to outsized revenue growth versus other SaaS peers,” writes Krishnaratne.
The analyst has lowered his estimates for fiscal 2019 while raising them for fiscal 2020. He is now calling for 2019 revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $28.2 million and $1.8 million, respectively, and for 2020 revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $70.0 million and $11.7 million, respectively.
Krishnaratne’s new $0.80 target represented a projected return of 66.7 per cent at the time of publication.
MCloud’s share price was cut in half over the back end of 2018 but this year has been better, with the stock currently sitting up 62 per cent year-to-date.